Agricultural Drought Monitoring System – first results

System Monitoringu Suszy Rolniczej

The first results for the Climate Water Balance, an indicator that determines the risk of agricultural drought, have been released. Data presented by the Institute of Crops, Fertilization and Soil Science PIB does not indicate a threat to any of the fourteen crops analyzed.

Agricultural Drought Monitoring System

According to IUNG-PIB in response to our questions:

The Agricultural Drought Monitoring System (SMSR) presents moisture conditions for crops during the growing season. In the SMSR, drought-causing meteorological conditions are determined by means of the climatic water balance (KBW). The results of the analysis are presented on the website in the form of maps and tables. For monitored agricultural crops, data is compiled covering all municipalities in Poland. The monitoring system consists of a weather and soil database, a GIS application for processing and integrating spatial data, and a web-based system for presenting results.

KBW’s critical values for the six-decade periods were set for the time from March 21 to September 30. The occurrence of a critical value means a 20% reduction in yields on a municipal scale in a given year compared to yields obtained under average multi-year weather conditions. The table shows a detailed list of the decades considered in each six-decade period.

1.21 III – 20 V1 (III) + 3 (IV) + 2 (V)
2.1 IV – 31 V3 (IV) + 3 (V)
3.11 IV – 10 VI2 (IV) + 3 (V) + 1 (VI)
4.21 IV – 20 VI1 (IV) + 3 (V) + 2 (VI)
5.1 V – 30 VI3 (V) + 3 (VI)
6.11 V – 10 VII2 (V) + 3 (VI) + 1 (VII)
7.21 V – 20 VII1 (V) + 3 (VI) + 2 (VII)
8.1 VI – 31 VII3 (VI) + 3 (VII)
9.11 VI – 10 VIII2 (VI) + 3 (VII) + 1 (VIII)
10.21 VI – 20 VIII1 (VI) + 3 (VII) +2 (VIII)
11.1 VII – 31 VIII3 (VII) + 3 (VIII)
12.11 VII – 10 IX2 (VII) + 3 (VIII) + 1 (IX)
13.21 JULY – 20 SEPTEMBER1 (VII) + 3 (VIII) + 2 (IX)
14.1 VIII – 30 IX3 (VIII) + 3 (IX)
Table 1. KBW six-decade periods from March 21 to September 30

SMSR is based on six-decade data. In the case of unit precipitation, the difference in precipitation totals between close localities may differ, while when aggregating values for a longer period of 61 to 62 days, the discrepancies are smaller and warrant an interpolation procedure. The six-decade period was chosen because of the assessment of water deficit on crop yields. Aggregating the period to six decades allows a more precise determination of the reduction in final yield due to the occurrence of water deficit.

After the end of the observed period, based on meteorological data, are developed:

(a) climate water balance maps for the entire country;

(b) maps showing drought on a national scale for selected species and crop groups;

(c) tables for each group and crop species by province: number and percentage of municipalities and share of arable land with agricultural drought;

(d) for each municipality, the occurrence of drought in each six-decade period (fourteen periods) and for fourteen groups and species of plants is presented.

The above information is posted on the SMSR website.

Meteorological data are obtained from measurement points:

  • synoptic and climatic stations of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-State Research Institute (IMGW-PIB);
  • IMGW-PIB precipitation stations;
  • stations of the Central Research Center for Crop Varieties (COBORU);
  • Agricultural Advisory Centers (ODR);
  • Chambers of Agriculture;
  • Institute of Fertilization and Soil Science-State Research Institute (IUNG-PIB);
  • local governments;
  • Other institutions that conduct meteorological observations.

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