Dramatic increase in mortality in Europe

Climate change has ceased to be a topic confined to scientific and activist discussions, increasingly affecting everyday life. The latest pan-European analysis of the temperature-related mortality burden, covering 30 countries, predicts that heat-related deaths could rise dramatically by the end of the century. What’s more, this alarming trend could continue even if the global temperature rise can be limited to 3°C.

Deadly consequences of global warming

According to a recent study by the European Commission’s Joint Research Center(JRC), there are approximately 407,000 temperature-related deaths per year. The vast majority of these ie. 363.5 thousand. are caused by low temperatures, and 43.7 thousand. – heat waves. However, while cold months still pose a greater threat, it is high temperatures that will become a major problem in the coming decades. JRC models predict that global warming of 3°C could cause a resulting, threefold increase in mortality.

The intensification of hot weather, which is occurring with increasing frequency, poses a particular threat to the elderly, people with chronic medical conditions and children. This results in an increase in heatstroke and dehydration, as well as worsening the health of those suffering from cardiovascular disease.

Changes will affect southern Europe the most

The most vulnerable, to increased mortality as a result of rising temperatures, are regions of southern Europe, countries such as Spain, France, Italy and Greece. A combination of demographic and climatic factors means that mortality risk in these regions will be markedly higher than in other parts of the continent.

Projections also indicate that by the end of the century in Spain the annual number of heat-related deaths will rise from 4,400 to 20,200, and in France from 10,400 to as many as 28,300. In Greece, too, the death toll is expected to rise dramatically from 3,000 to 13,600 cases.

Increased mortality will occur across the continent

The JRC study, covering 1,368 regions in 30 European countries (27 EU member states plus the UK, Norway and Switzerland), forecasts an increase in temperature-related deaths per 100,000. people – from 98.7 between 1991 and 2020 to 113.6 by 2100.

Detailed country-by-country data show significant regional differences. Heat-related mortality will be 9.3 times higher in southern Europe than in the north. Latvia, for example, is expected to see a relatively low increase (by 29 deaths per 100,000 people), while in Malta the number could rise by as much as 95. Still, almost every country will feel the impact of rising temperatures. In the north of the continent, although summer temperatures will be less intense, their negative effects could pose a threat due to the projected increase in the life expectancy of the population living in the region.

What’s in store for us?

Projections of increased heat-related mortality are alarming. So-called “climate hotspots” are expected to be particularly affected by climate change in the coming years. climate hotspots, where the combination of extreme temperatures and aging populations will cause mortality to rise the fastest.

By 2050. most such places will be in southern Europe, although increased warming will also affect eastern regions, including Poland. In northern Europe, despite the warmer climate, extreme heat will occur less frequently than in the south, which may partially protect these areas from an increase in deaths.

However, climate change is not a distant future – its effects are already being felt now. The summer of 2022, which turned out to be the hottest on record in Europe, saw unusually high death rates. It is estimated that due to the extreme heat on the continent More than 60,000 died during this period. people.

Any deviation from the goal of limiting temperature rise to 2°C set under the 2015 global Paris Agreement, meanwhile, will result in further infamous record-breaking heat-related death statistics. Their number could increase by 13,400 per year under the scenario of a 3°C rise in global temperature by 2100, and by 54,500 – with a 4°C rise. Therefore, the observed increasing temperature-related mortality burden in Europe is a challenge that urgently requires coordinated action.