Drought does not wait. Expert on how to keep water in the field

Drought is no longer an anomaly – it is becoming an everyday reality. With increasingly warmer winters, lack of snow cover and rapid escape of water from soils, farmers in Poland are facing a new reality. Katarzyna Żyłowska of the Institute of Cultivation, Fertilization and Soil Science in Puławy puts it bluntly: Droughts will become more frequent, and the key is how we prepare for them. In an interview with Agnieszka Hobot, she talks about how farmers can act now to limit losses and suggests what steps they should take. This interview is worth reading from beginning to end – because it’s not just about forecasts, but about concrete decisions in the fields.

Agnieszka Hobot: Let’s start with the basics. Both we, as Water Matters, as well as IMGW-PIB or other institutions, have been signaling that this year could bring an extremely severe drought – and that de facto it has already begun. It is known that snow cover has been negligible this year. I would like to ask about the broader context: does what we are observing mean that droughts will become an increasingly frequent and longer-lasting phenomenon? Should we start treating them as the new normal – both in agriculture and in water management as a whole?

Katarzyna Zylowska: Indeed, we have an extremely unfavorable hydrological situation this year. The snow cover is practically non-existent, which means that we have not accumulated a supply of water from snow in the soil over the winter. After the winter, soil moisture is very low, rivers have noticeably lowered levels – hydrologists speak of lows. Groundwater is also at alarmingly low levels.

As for the state of the vegetation, the forecasting models available to the Institute show that at the end of March, weather conditions for winter crops – that is, crops sown in autumn – were not yet bad. We do not record losses in their yields. The situation is different for spring crops, that is, those sown in the spring (already or in the coming days) – here we have a real problem with the availability of water in the soil.

This is not a new situation – for several years we have been observing an increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts, and meteorological forecasts increasingly contain scenarios that include the occurrence of prolonged periods without rain. One cannot say that this phenomenon surprises us – on the contrary. It’s something we need to prepare for systemically. And it’s not just a matter of reacting when a drought occurs, but of acting in advance to limit its effects – including through retention, proper agricultural practices and investment in water infrastructure.

A.H.: Which regions of Poland are currently most vulnerable to the effects of agricultural drought?

K.¿: Agricultural drought largely depends on the type of soil. The most vulnerable areas are those with light and permeable soils – poorly retaining water. Paradoxically, these are often the regions with the most intensive agriculture with large farms. A good example is Wielkopolska, which is now becoming one of the most endangered areas. This is a new situation – just a dozen years ago this region was not identified with drought risk. Now, however, recurring water deficits confirm that the scale of the problem is growing. The phenomenon is also affecting other parts of the country – both south and north.

A.H.: You mentioned that we already have to reckon with the fact that droughts will become more frequent and more intense. So what measures should farmers take – both in the short and long term – to limit the effects of water shortages and minimize losses in their fields?

K.Ż.: In the context of agriculture, we are primarily talking about crop losses – this is where specific solutions should be sought. There are mechanisms to retain water in the agricultural environment, instead of letting it run off quickly. These are not new concepts, but now their importance is growing.

There is a lot of talk these days about regenerative and carbon farming. These are farming systems that focus on improving soil fertility and restoring soil structure – among other things by increasing organic matter, including humus. Soil rich in organic matter acts like a sponge – it can absorb more water and hold it longer, which is crucial during rainless periods.

The use of intercrops and catch crops is also very important. Leaving fields without cover crops exposes them not only to intense evaporation and drying, but also to wind erosion. Cover crops protect the soil and, in the process, accumulate a certain amount of water and nutrients that are later available to the main crops.

Precision irrigation systems – tailored to the actual needs of plants at specific stages of development – are becoming increasingly common on orchard or vegetable farms. Thanks to modern sensors and technologies, it is possible not only to save water, but also to increase production efficiency.

It is worth noting that the natural environment works like an interconnected system – and the problem of drought does not function in isolation from other factors. An example is spring frosts. We are already receiving signals from fruit growers who are worried about their fruit trees – some of them are already blooming, and the announced frosts can significantly weaken them. As a result, plants will be more susceptible to water stress later, even if there is no direct damage to buds or flowers.

Therefore, activities in the field of so-called “small retention” are very important – creating ponds, retention basins, dams in ditches or natural basins that retain rainwater where it falls. Such solutions are possible to implement even on a small farm and make a real difference in improving the water balance at the local level. Retaining water where it falls is one of the most effective ways to reduce losses and counteract the effects of drought.

A.H.: In your opinion, are farmers aware that adaptation measures are urgently needed? Or is the prevailing attitude still that of expecting the state to compensate for losses?

K.Ż.: This is a very important topic and, as is often the case, the answer is that it depends. For example, on the individual awareness of farmers, their experience and approach to farming. Yesterday I attended a conference organized by the Agricultural Advisory Center on demonstration farms. The speaker there was a farmer from the West Pomeranian province, whose lands are only 15 kilometers from the coast. He said bluntly that a few years ago he noticed that despite the favorable location and seemingly good conditions, his yields began to steadily decline. Instead of waiting for outside help, he decided to act.

He implemented carbon farming practices, including reducing plowing, starting to use intercrops, and introducing elements of agroecology. Today he runs a demonstration farm – farmers from the area can come and see what he has implemented and how, what results he has had, what costs he has incurred. And it works. Education by example – showing that neighbors are taking concrete steps and having results – has a strong impact.

On the other hand – and this, too, needs to be said honestly – a wait-and-see attitude still persists among some farmers: The state should do something, should compensate for losses. This is a short-sighted approach. Especially since many of the solutions proposed today – such as catch crops, mid-field afforestation, small-scale retention – are nothing new. These are methods that have been known and used since the 19th century. An excellent example is the estate of Dezyder Chłapowski in Turwi (Greater Poland), who already over 150 years ago implemented exactly the same practices: he established tree belts, water reservoirs, enriched the soil with humus, used intercrops of clover. His farm became a model for others – precisely because he acted systemically and long-term.

I believe that the support system should clearly promote and reward farmers who take preventive and adaptive measures. The idea is not to punish those who have not yet done anything, but to give a clear direction – to support those involved who invest in the long-term resilience of their farms. Of course, there will always be voices: why did he get it and I didn’t? But it is the change in support philosophy – from reactive to proactive – that is needed.

Because the truth is that even if we take all possible measures, an extreme drought can still reduce yields. But the same measures – improving soil structure, retaining water – will pay off in the long run. If one counts solely on compensation and does not invest in improving one’s situation, one not only risks greater losses, but also becomes increasingly dependent on external support – and this is not an economically or environmentally sustainable model.

Public funds are not unlimited – if the number of farms affected by drought grows every year, but the number of those counteracting its effects does not, the system will eventually not close. Therefore, it is necessary to act now – not to have an effect in a few months, but to be able to keep agricultural production as stable as possible in the future.

A.H.: In conclusion, I would still like to ask about the agricultural drought monitoring system that IUNG-PIB runs. Can it really be used by farmers? How does it work and what is worth knowing about it?

K.¿: The Agricultural Drought Monitoring System, as the name suggests, is used for ongoing observation and identification of areas where drought conditions occur in a given year. It should be emphasized that it is not a forecasting system, but only describes the condition based on historical data – we analyze what has already happened, but do not show what will happen in the future.

The system has practical applications for farmers as well. Among other things, it is on its basis – as well as on the basis of data from other institutions – that the drought application works, thanks to which farmers can apply for support in case of losses. Of course, as is often the case, not every user will be fully satisfied, but currently we do not have a more comprehensive tool in Poland for estimating crop losses due to adverse weather conditions. It is worth noting that the Agricultural Drought Monitoring System has legal legitimacy. The values of the KBW index are published in the 2019 Ordinance of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, and the system operates on the basis of the 2005 Law on Agricultural and Livestock Insurance.

Our analyses are based on meteorological data from a network of measuring stations distributed throughout the country, as well as on satellite data. Thus, we have at our disposal very rich and detailed material that allows us to calculate the values of the Climatic Water Balance (KBW) – a key indicator in our system. KBW is calculated for different crop species and soil types – we take into account both good soils and those with poorer retention properties. KBW threshold values also take into account the different water requirements of plants at different stages of development.

The system was launched in the early 2000s, meaning it has been in operation for more than two decades. It assumes that monitoring begins on March 21 and that the soil is fully moistened after the winter, which was reasonable when it was created. However, observations in recent years show that the course of winter is changing – snowfall is becoming less frequent, so we don’t have snow cover, and soil moisture after winter is often insufficient. Therefore, the system is constantly being developed – to better reflect real climatic and agricultural conditions.

We are adding new components, and we are also conducting field studies – both at experimental stations and directly with farmers. This allows us to confront model data with actual conditions. It’s important to remember that what we see in the field is not just the result of drought – other factors, such as temperature, agronomic treatments and plant diseases, also have an impact. Therefore, the data from the system indicates areas where drought losses may occur, but is not the only determinant of the causes of yield declines.