El Niño returns? WMO warns of changing weather patterns worldwide

El Niño is returning to the global weather map. In a statement released on June 2, 2026, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that the tropical Pacific is warming rapidly, and the probability of El Niño developing between June and August has already reached 80 percent. If the forecasts prove accurate, the coming months could bring greater fluctuations in temperature and precipitation around the world, along with an increased risk of droughts, floods, heatwaves, and severe weather events.

A warm ocean spells trouble for global weather

NASA satellites have detected waves of higher and warmer water moving across the equatorial Pacific in recent weeks. These are known as Kelvin waves, a phenomenon that often precedes the development of El Niño. The elevated sea level in this region results partly from the expansion of warmer water and changes in ocean circulation.

According to the WMO, temperature anomalies beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific have exceeded +6°C in some areas. This is an important signal because the heat accumulated in the ocean may continue to fuel the warming of surface waters in the coming months.

WMO experts estimate there is an 80 percent probability that El Niño conditions will develop between June and August 2026. All indications suggest that the phenomenon will persist at least until November and range from moderate to very strong intensity.

El Niño conditions will add fuel to the fire of a warming world, said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres in an online statement.

What does El Niño 2026 mean?

The term El Niño has dominated headlines for several months, yet many people still do not know what to expect from it. WMO meteorologists acknowledge that forecasting its impacts is difficult because each previous episode has followed a slightly different course. The common denominator, however, is a rise in global temperatures, often accompanied by persistent heatwaves, as seen in 2023 and 2024.

A forecast map published by the WMO in May indicates that between June and August 2026, strong temperature anomalies could affect all of Central America, western North America, nearly all of Africa, South Asia, and southeastern Europe.

The map also suggests that temperatures across most of Poland are likely to be significantly higher than the long-term average. This forecast is supported by models used by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB), which indicate that June, July, and August will be hot throughout the country.

A quieter hurricane season?

The warm waters of the Pacific are likely to drive cyclone development in the central and eastern parts of the ocean. Destructive storms may affect communities in some Pacific regions. Conditions are expected to be calmer in the Atlantic, however. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts that this year’s hurricane season should be less active than average. Between one and three hurricanes are expected to reach Category 3 strength or higher.

The WMO warns that the arrival of El Niño will alter global precipitation patterns, increasing the likelihood of both droughts and floods. Exceptionally dry conditions may occur in Australia and Oceania, northern South America, parts of equatorial Africa, and India. Indian meteorologists forecast that monsoon rainfall could be the lowest in 11 years, raising concerns about crop yields and food prices in the world’s fifth-largest economy. Excessive rainfall, on the other hand, is expected in parts of southern Africa, Central Asia, the United States, southern Brazil, Argentina, and eastern China.

The WMO will closely monitor conditions in the coming months to support decision-making by governments, humanitarian organizations, and climate-sensitive sectors. Earlier seasonal forecasts and early warnings are essential to save lives and reduce impacts on our economies and communities, said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.