Polski
Science, Issue 7/2026
Europe is drowning in dust. A troubling consequence of climate change
Aug
Dust from the Sahara is having an increasingly noticeable impact on air quality in Europe. Recent studies indicate that the number of dust episodes remains relatively stable, but their intensity is increasing. Scientists attribute this trend, among other things, to the ongoing desertification of North Africa and changes in climatic conditions.
Desert dust plays an important role in the functioning of the climate and ecosystems, but at the same time it degrades air quality and affects human health. Scientists have developed a model that allowed them to analyze dust concentrations from 2012 to 2021 and compare them with data from Alpine ice cores spanning the period since 1750. The results of their work were published this July in the journal *Nature*.
The Largest Dust Database in Europe
A key element of the study was the creation of Europe’s largest database of PM10 chemical composition measurements. Researchers collected approximately 18,500 daily measurements from 103 stations located in various parts of the continent. They analyzed the concentrations of five elements characteristic of mineral particulate matter: aluminum (Al), silicon (Si), titanium (Ti), calcium (Ca), and iron (Fe).
Researchers have shown that aluminum is the best indicator of transported desert dust, because calcium and iron are significantly more affected by local sources of pollution, such as traffic, brake dust, construction, or dust resuspension from road surfaces.
By determining the characteristic proportions of individual elements, it was possible to convert the aluminum content into the actual concentration of mineral dust. The authors emphasize that this is the most comprehensive observational characterization of the composition of dust transported over Europe to date.
A Groundbreaking Model
Based on this, a model was developed that simulates daily dust concentrations on a grid with a resolution of 10 × 10 km. It proved to be more effective than previously used physical models, particularly in detecting weaker and moderate dust episodes, which had previously been underestimated.
Interestingly, instead of training the model on total PM10 concentrations—which also include pollutants from human activities—the authors used aluminum concentrations as an indicator of desert dust. This made it possible to distinguish much more accurately between dust transported from the Sahara and the Middle East and that originating from local sources.
Southern Europe remains the most vulnerable
The analysis revealed clear differences between the southern and northern parts of the continent. The average annual dust concentration in the south was 5.28 ± 2.65μg/m³, while in the north it was only 2.09 ± 1.05μg/m³—about 2.5 times lower.
At the same time, an increase in concentrations was observed across nearly all of Europe between 2012 and 2021. The average annual increase was 0.055 μg/m³, with the highest increase recorded over Italy and the Adriatic and Aegean Seas—0.074 μg/m³ per year. Importantly, the rate of increase was similar in Northern Europe as well, suggesting that the problem is gradually spreading to a larger and larger area of the continent.
Fewer episodes, but they’re getting stronger
One of the most interesting findings of the study is the distinction between the number of dust episodes and their intensity. In southern Europe, residents experienced an average of 46 days with dust influx per year. During this time, the average concentration was approximately 11.00μg/m³, while in the north it reached approximately 3.30μg/m³. At the same time, the number of days with exceedances decreased across nearly all of Europe between 2012 and 2021, even though the detection threshold also declined. This means that dust episodes are not occurring more frequently, but are becoming more intense.
This phenomenon was most pronounced in Southern Europe. In the Adriatic, Ionian, and Aegean Seas, as well as in the Balkans, concentrations during episodes increased by an average of 1.40μg/m³ over the decade. In Northern Europe, the situation was different—there, background particulate matter levels rose primarily, while the episodes themselves did not become noticeably more severe. According to the authors, this indicates a gradual increase in the presence of particulate matter in the atmosphere, even outside of periods of the highest inflows.
Changes visible since pre-industrial times
To determine whether the observed trends are long-term in nature, researchers analyzed ice cores from the Colle Gnifetti glacier in the Alps dating from 1750 to 2020. The results showed that between the preindustrial period and the most recent decade analyzed, the amount of dust preserved in the ice increased by approximately 110 percent.
Statistical analyses have shown a strong link between the increase in dust levels and the worsening drought in North Africa, as well as changes in atmospheric circulation described, among other things, by the North Atlantic Oscillation. According to the authors, it is precisely the interaction between desertification and changes in atmospheric patterns that best explains the observed increase in dust transport over Europe.
A Growing Challenge for Air Quality and Health
The study shows that as early as 2021, particulate matter transported over southern Europe accounted for 31 percent of the World Health Organization’s annual PM10 limit and 25.8 percent of the PM2.5 limit. Residents of southern Europe were exposed, on average, to 46 episodes of particulate matter pollution per year, during which the average concentration was 9.68 ± 4.85μg/m³.
The authors estimated that short-term exposure to such concentrations is associated with a 0.7 percent increase in daily mortality, a 0.7 percent increase in the number of hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases among people over 15 years of age, and a 2.5 percent increase in hospitalizations among children and adolescents up to 14 years of age. Although the rise in concentrations over the decade analyzed has not yet translated into a marked deterioration in health indicators, the authors emphasize that a further intensification of this phenomenon could significantly increase the threat to public health.
Source:
Vasilakos, P.N., Upadhyay, A., Manousakas, M.I. et al. Rising dust pollution across Europe in a changing climate. Nature 655, 647–654 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10743-w
