Flood Risk Could Double

Flood risk around the world could nearly double by the end of the 21st century. The latest analyses suggest that if countries fail to meet their commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, climate change—along with rising sea levels and increasing extreme weather events—could lead to a dramatic rise in global flood risk.

Global Flood Models

Modern models, such as the Global Flood Map (GFM) developed by a team of researchers from Fathom and the University of Bristol, are crucial tools for predicting the effects of future climate change and assessing flood risk on a global scale. GFM, with a resolution of up to 30 meters for all land surfaces (excluding Greenland and Antarctica), enables the forecasting of risks related to pluvial, coastal, and riverine floods.

This model integrates data from various sources, including satellite and hydrological data, allowing for the simulation of different climate scenarios and the assessment of their impact on flood-prone areas. With advanced technology, GFM enables the analysis of risks that were previously difficult to evaluate using traditional methods.

The Impact of Climate Change on Flood Risk

A key conclusion from the conducted studies is that even with moderate global temperature increases, coastal floods will become more frequent and intense, regardless of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This is because sea-level rise, one of the main risk factors, will continue regardless of the climate scenarios implemented, due to long-term thermal and dynamic processes occurring in the oceans. Additionally, changes in rainfall patterns may contribute to increased flood risk in regions that have been less vulnerable to such events in the past.

The research also indicates that the increase in flood risk associated with rising sea levels and the intensification of extreme weather events will vary depending on the region. Nonetheless, this increase will be felt globally, with a marked rise in risk in coastal areas and major river valleys, where the impacts could be particularly severe. For example, in South Asia, where many cities are located in low-lying coastal areas, the risk could increase by 50-60%, posing enormous adaptation challenges for local communities.

Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions May Be Insufficient

Scientists in the published study point out that even the most optimistic scenarios for reducing greenhouse gas emissions (SSP1-2.6) may not be sufficient to completely halt the increase in flood risk. It is predicted that under this scenario, the average flood risk will increase by 9% between 2020 and 2100.

In more pessimistic scenarios (SSP5-8.5), global flood risk could increase by as much as 49% by the year 2100. Particularly concerning is that in regions such as Western Europe and the United States, where flood protection infrastructure is well-developed, the rising risk could exceed the adaptive capacities of current systems.

The Need for Adaptive Measures

In the face of increasing flood risk, especially in coastal regions, urgent adaptive measures are needed to minimize the risk. It is crucial to develop and implement integrated flood risk management strategies at the local, regional, and global levels. An essential part of these efforts is tailoring strategies to specific local conditions, as the impacts of climate change will differ depending on the region.

Furthermore, the importance of precise and up-to-date flood forecasting models was emphasized, as they are essential for decision-making by policymakers and local authorities. Models such as GFM allow for a better understanding of flood phenomena and planning appropriate countermeasures that can reduce material losses and protect human lives. International cooperation in data and technology exchange is also key, so that countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change can effectively counter future threats.