Forecast for autumn 2025. Will it be exceptionally warm?

Yesterday we officially welcomed the calendar autumn, and outside it is slowly getting colder. Will we face a typical spell of damp and chilly weather? The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has just released its global climate outlook for the last quarter of 2025, and everything indicates that in the coming months we won’t be freezing.

The ocean decides everything

An analysis of the June–August 2025 period showed that global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies generally remained above average, with particularly high values outside the tropics. In the central and eastern Pacific, temperature and precipitation anomalies indicated a weak manifestation of the La Niña phenomenon – according to WMO experts, it is this factor that will determine the weather in the coming quarter.

Meteorologists forecast that sea surface temperatures will continue to remain above the long-term average, especially in the Pacific region. In the Atlantic, anomalies are expected to be much smaller, with temperatures staying closer to the average.

What does this mean for the global climate?

The WMO’s global outlook for September–December 2025 confirms the long-standing trend of climate warming – although, under the influence of La Niña, it may be somewhat milder. A warm autumn is forecast primarily for the Northern Hemisphere, especially for the southern and northeastern regions of North America, western Europe, northwestern Africa, northern and eastern Asia, and the Arctic Circle. Fans of autumn walks may be pleased, but it is definitely bad news for Arctic ecosystems.

Above-average temperatures are also expected in equatorial Africa, Southeast Asia, New Zealand, and the southern regions of South America. It will also be warmer over the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans, which increases the risk of severe storms. Let us recall that super typhoon Ragasa is currently sweeping across Southeast Asia, while hurricane Gabrielle – already rated category 4 – is approaching the coast of Florida.
La Niña is most likely to reduce rainfall in the central and eastern Pacific, while increasing rainfall intensity over the western Pacific and adjacent land regions. For our part of Europe, the WMO forecasts precipitation close to average, but with a downward trend.

Autumn in Poland – what does IMGW forecast?

The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB) has also prepared a weather outlook until the end of the year. It shows that a golden Polish autumn will arrive in the southeastern part of the country, where October temperatures are expected to remain above normal. However, in all of Pomerania and Greater Poland, umbrellas will be necessary.

November will be drier, with precipitation across the country not deviating from the long-term average. Residents of Kuyavian-Pomeranian, West Pomeranian, Greater Poland, and Lubusz voivodeships may expect slightly warmer weather this time. December is expected to be very moderate – both temperatures and precipitation across Poland should not show significant anomalies.

Winter sports enthusiasts, however, will be disappointed to learn that January, according to IMGW-PIB meteorologists, will be warm and rainy. Average temperatures clearly below zero are forecast only for Zakopane and Suwałki. A skiing trip is therefore best planned abroad.

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main photo credit: Pixabay