Polski
Business and economics, In this issue, Issue 4/2026
How to feed 10 billion people? On the management of water resources in agriculture
Apr
Researchers’ calculations show that modern agricultural water management (AWM) practices can only sustainably provide food for 3.4 billion people. There is no way they can cover the consumption needs of a population of 10 billion in 2050. Experts at the World Bank suggest what needs to change to counter the global water-food imbalance.
When we talk about feeding the population sustainably, we think of providing access to food in a way that does not deplete natural resources and is supported by stable financial flows.
Agricultural water management must change
The World Bank report Nourish and Flourish: Water Solutions to Feed 10 Billion People on a Livable Planet, published in March this year, emphasizes the inextricable link between sound water management and food supply. Unfortunately, the authors write, more than half of today’s agricultural production is based on practices that negatively affect the integrity of the biosphere, freshwater use and the nitrogen cycle.
In some countries, agriculture uses too much water, while in others it faces persistent water scarcity. Climate shocks in the form of droughts and floods further exacerbate these inequities, leading to crop losses, forced migrations and regional instability. Their effects also take a toll on public finances burdened by the need to import food and social welfare costs.
According to World Bank analysts, wise management of agricultural water is crucial for a stable labor market, food security and social justice. System reforms and investment efforts to date cannot meet the growing demand for food within existing environmental constraints. A change in approach is needed.
Green water versus blue water
The report’s authors’ proposed change to the agricultural water management system is based on categorizing countries according to two criteria: their level of water stress and their position in the international food market (whether they are net food importers or exporters). Such a simple assessment can help policymakers work out AWM trade-offs based on local circumstances. Thus, it will enable the creation of a strategy that ensures food security, sustainable use of water resources and economic development.
Agricultural water management includes the use of:
- green water, or soil moisture from rainfall, which currently accounts for 87 percent of agricultural water use;
- blue water, that is, water present in streams, rivers, reservoirs and aquifers that can be extracted, stored and used for irrigation.
The report’s authors emphasize that green water is now the dominant factor in plant growth and accounts for the majority of resource consumption in agriculture. The unpredictability of precipitation, however, makes food production difficult to manage and can lead to colossal losses and supply instability.
Meanwhile, blue water, whose consumption is surprisingly low globally, is a resource that can be easily controlled and thus achieve better results in crop production. Its use can prevent crop failure during key periods of crop growth and increase yields. Blue water and green water are, of course, part of the same hydrological cycle, so their flows and impacts should be analyzed together, within the framework of a circular economy.
AWM practices include completely rainfall-dependent and mixed systems, as well as irrigation systems that rely mostly or entirely on blue water. The World Bank report proposes a new analytical tool to help decision-makers move away from one-size-fits-all solutions to country-specific pathways and actions. Separate priorities and options for action are identified for each scenario on the water-food axis.
Good examples from the world
Rational agricultural water management is being implemented in many African countries and is already yielding the first positive results. Uganda, Mali and Senegal, where water resources are sufficient, have increased irrigation, reducing their dependence on food imports. In India, Chile and Pakistan, on the other hand, where water is acutely scarce, efforts are focused on improving efficiency of water use, changing the type of crops grown and reducing pressure on scarce freshwater resources.
Experience from the Sahel, Pakistan and Chile also shows that farmers are willing to invest in irrigation if they have access to the capital market and high-quality equipment. However, the legitimacy of these investments depends on the reliability of the data – AWM should be based on advanced geospatial analysis, remote sensors and machine learning. New technologies have proven crucial in identifying regions where irrigation potential is particularly high. China, India and Ukraine, among others, have already found this out.
In France and Spain, the shift in water management from a model based on infrastructure construction to a service model, where water supply quality and accountability are a priority, has had very positive results. Spain, as well as Peru, Morocco and Jordan, have benefited from the use of private capital in both financing and implementing AWM projects. Risk-sharing mechanisms, long-term concessions and performance-based financing are mobilizing private investment to modernize irrigation systems, develop irrigation made possible by renewable energy and recycle wastewater.
Socio-economic benefits associated with AWM
The World Bank’s proposed solutions promise broad social and economic benefits. As little as a 10 percent increase in agricultural productivity could reduce the likelihood of poverty by 2.5-3.0 percent. The report also estimates that converting all of the rain-fed agricultural areas analyzed into irrigated systems – within local water resource limits – could create up to 245 million new jobs, most of them, around 218 million, in sub-Saharan Africa.
Irrigation increases terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET), the transport of water from land to the atmosphere. Thus, it contributes to moisture recycling and is an important but underestimated factor in mitigating extreme heat. Between 0.79 billion and 1.29 billion people benefit from this effect, mostly in South Asia.
Agricultural water management also supports strategic planning at the level of entire catchments. During droughts, it enables water to be shifted from agricultural land to cities or industry, and during floods it promotes the absorption of excess water, protecting valuable infrastructure and human life. According to the report’s authors, in both of these cases it is reasonable to reward farmers for providing important ecosystem services.
In writing the article, I used:
Talbi, Amal, Pieter Waalewijn, Poolad Karimi, IJsbrand De Jong, Francois Onimus, Esha Zaveri, Bogachan Benli, Amadou Ba, Ruyi Li, and Heather Skilling. 2026. Nourish and Flourish: Water Solutions to Feed 10 Billion People on a Livable Planet. Global Water Monitoring Report. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0782-4
