Iran with no way out. It begins cloud seeding

On Saturday, the first aircraft of the year took off over northwestern Iran to bring rain. Cloud seeding is intended as a response to the most severe drought in decades, which threatens the country’s water security. The Ministry of Energy plans to continue the program until May 2026.

Iranians pray, the government steps in

This year’s rainy season in the Middle East, which officially began in October, has so far brought no expected relief — in 20 provinces not a single drop of water has fallen for 50 days. Since Friday, collective prayers for rain have been held across the country. The faithful recall with hope an event from 1944, when residents of Qom went out to pray in the fields, and after three days rainfall saved them from a catastrophic drought.

The Iranian government has decided that Providence should be supported with modern technologies. According to the Ministry of Energy, cloud seeding is recognized internationally as a cost-effective method of obtaining water from the atmosphere. The head of the ministry, Mohammad-Mehdi Javadianzadeh, announced that last weekend a specialized aircraft carried out the first flight over Lake Urmia.

Water needed immediately

Urmia was once the largest salt lake in the Middle East and the sixth largest in the world. Prolonged, intense droughts affecting Iran since 2020 caused the reservoir to retain only 2 percent of its water as of September this year. Ahmad Reza Lahijanzadeh, deputy head of Iran’s Department of Environment, warned that the situation around the lake is dramatic and that the public faces the threat of salt storms and mass migration.

In the second weekend of November, a low-pressure system developed over Lake Urmia, creating suitable conditions for cloud seeding. The Ministry of Energy is monitoring meteorological conditions and is considering further flights over Tehran and other provinces.

In Tabriz, a special air base is being developed to support the program’s implementation until the end of the rainy season, which ends in May. In addition to the aircraft, the government also plans to use special drones that spray substances (most commonly silver iodide) into clouds to enhance water condensation.

Cloud seeding remains controversial

Despite his optimism, Javadianzadeh warns that seeding technology has its limitations and is not a miracle cure for drought: If the issue is not properly explained, society and decision-makers may develop expectations beyond the capacity of this technology or become disappointed with it.

The Iranian news outlet Iran International adds that while cloud seeding can marginally increase rainfall, it cannot compensate for decades of overuse, aquifer depletion, or increasing aridity driven by climate change across the region.

Current research indicates that cloud seeding has the potential to increase rainfall by 10–20 percent, but its effectiveness depends on atmospheric conditions — rainfall cannot be conjured from a cloudless sky.

Skeptics raise a number of additional concerns, from the idea of “playing God” to potential environmental impacts of dispersing silver iodide into the atmosphere. According to Sarah Tessendorf from the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the United States, the latter do not appear alarming, and toxic accumulation in nature is unlikely.

Experts also reject theories suggesting that cloud seeding caused the dramatic floods in Dubai and California. Although both countries use meteorological modification, it is very unlikely that cloud seeding would cause a flood, explains Roslyn Prinsley, head of disaster solutions at the Australian National University Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions.