Is a regenerative blue economy the key to prosperity?

The World Economic Forum’s (WEF) June report outlines an ambitious path for the development of a blue economy based on the principle of regenerating degraded resources. About 40 percent of the world’s population lives within 100 km of the coast, and this zone generates 30 to 50 percent of global GDP. How can we harness this potential?

Shifting from a sustainable to a regenerative approach

Marine ecosystems are currently undergoing rapid degradation due to ocean warming, rising tidal levels, pollution, and overexploitation of resources. The price for this degradation is paid directly by coastal communities and, indirectly, by the entire economy. Unfortunately, short-term gains continue to overshadow long-term damage.

While a sustainable blue economy focuses on limiting these negative changes, it does not attempt to reverse the damage that has already occurred. The new approach aims to change this situation by actively restoring marine ecosystems and fostering the long-term well-being of societies.

This shift in approach is driven by reality. As experts from the WEF point out in their new report , *The Regenerative Blue Economy: Pathways to Prosperity*, the current value of the ocean economy is (according to various estimates) from $2.6 to $5.1 bln annually in terms of gross value added. It supports billions of jobs and accounts for over 80 percent of global trade, serving as the foundation of food security for coastal nations. However, it is undergoing very negative changes:

• The proportion of overfished fish stocks has increased nearly fourfold since 1974;
• 70–90 percent of the world’s coral reefs could disappear within 20 years;
• The vulnerability of coastal areas to flooding could double by 2100, putting 10 percent of the world’s population at risk.

The three sectors of the blue economy: traditional, growth, and frontier

WEF experts have divided the ocean economy into three sectors based on their growth trajectories. The first sector includes traditional industries such as capture fisheries, maritime transport, ports, and offshore oil and gas extraction. These generate the most revenue and jobs, but their environmental footprint is significant. In this case, the transformation must begin with mitigating damage and improving efficiency, and then focus on incorporating environmental costs into economic calculations and redirecting subsidies toward actions that restore marine ecosystems.

The second sector—the growth sector—includes industries that are developing very rapidly, such as offshore wind energy, aquaculture, the digitalization of the maritime sector, and coastal and maritime tourism. With appropriate environmental safeguards and design that prioritizes nature conservation, these sectors have the potential to become the driving force behind a regenerative blue economy, thereby enhancing the health of the oceans.

However, the third sector—known as the “border” sector—is of the greatest importance. It encompasses activities aimed at restoring marine ecosystems—that is, the restoration of mangroves, seagrass beds, and coral reefs—as well as the development of blue biotechnology and ocean monitoring services.

Four levers for launching a regenerative blue economy

The WEF report identifies four key drivers that accelerate the transition to a regenerative blue economy: governance, financing, human capital, and technology.

In the context of governance, the authors point out that it is necessary to shift the scale from local projects to ecosystem-wide initiatives and to implement clear land-use planning with decisions that can actually be enforced. Public finances remain a key source of capital for the regenerative blue economy, enabling transformation through the reallocation of subsidies, environmental fees, and the internalization of degradation costs. However, new instruments, such as blue bonds and debt-for-nature swaps, will also play an important role.

The report also devotes considerable attention to what is known as “ocean literacy,” which is intended to serve as the foundation for building the competencies needed to develop a regenerative blue economy. Local and regional authorities should receive training in marine spatial planning, permitting systems, and the management of marine protected areas. Industry, for its part, should develop expertise in creating regenerative business models, managing environmental risks, and ensuring regulatory compliance.

It is also difficult to overstate the importance of the latest technologies, such as remote sensing, autonomous platforms, environmental DNA (eDNA), digital twins, and machine learning. Today, ocean management must be based on observation: it is impossible to assess or verify what has not been observed, let alone manage it.

Challenges for the Near Future

The authors of the report emphasize that ocean restoration must be viewed as part of a broader framework encompassing defense, climate resilience, energy, and foreign policy—not merely environmental protection. On the other hand, the rights of local coastal communities to use resources and have a say in plans concerning the oceans cannot be disregarded.

Investments in satellite monitoring and AI are necessary to build public infrastructure for tracking ship movements, verifying supply chains, and enforcing compliance in this area. Meanwhile, falling costs of distributed technologies (e.g., solar energy, electric vessels) are expected to ensure that small operators can participate in the development of a regenerative blue economy.

Unfortunately, not everything is moving in the right direction. The report’s authors identify the breakdown of multilateral cooperation due to political considerations—with particular emphasis on competition over the Arctic—and difficulties in reaching an agreement on the decarbonization of shipping as threats to ocean recovery. At the same time, it is alarming that coral reefs, Arctic sea ice, and other ecosystems are approaching tipping points beyond which even the best management will not guarantee their recovery. Without a rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, it may be too late for the oceans to recover.

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In writing the article, I used:

World Economic Forum (2026). The Regenerative Blue Economy: Pathways to Prosperity. https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Regenerative_Blue_Economy_2026.pdf