March 2025 the hottest in central Asia’s history: temperatures exceeded 30°C

In March 2025, Central Asia was hit by a record-breaking heatwave, with temperatures exceeding average values by as much as 10°C. Scientists are unequivocal – climate change has significantly increased the intensity and likelihood of this extreme event. Millions of residents across the region felt the impact.

Record temperatures in the region

In March 2025, Central Asia faced a heatwave that surprised everyone with its intensity. Thermometers hit 30.8°C in Jalalabad, Kyrgyzstan, 29.4°C in Namangan, and 29.1°C in Fergana, Uzbekistan. Even nights brought no relief – in Shardara, Kazakhstan, the temperature didn’t drop below 18.3°C, making it the hottest March night in the country’s history. The areas east of the Ural Mountains – Kazakhstan, eastern Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan – were hit hardest between March 18 and 22. Even in lower parts of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, temperatures exceeded 30°C, despite being at altitudes of 1,000 meters above sea level.

Central Asia is accustomed to distinct seasonal cycles – with hot summers from May to August and much cooler Marches. This year, however, conditions significantly deviated from the norm. Recorded temperatures were clearly higher than the March average for the 1991–2020 period, clearly indicating a weather anomaly.

Climate change’s impact on heatwave intensity

Scientists from the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, the U.S., and the U.K. analyzed how climate change affected the March heatwave. They focused on the five hottest days and nights across southern Kazakhstan, eastern Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and the low-lying areas of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

The analysis showed that climate change increased the intensity of the heatwave by about 4°C and tripled the likelihood of its occurrence. In the current climate, which has warmed globally by 1.3°C compared to the pre-industrial era, such extreme temperatures may occur on average once every three years. In a pre-global warming climate, however, they would have been nearly impossible – and the hottest days, occurring at similar frequencies, would have been 5–10°C cooler.

It’s important to note that available climate models may underestimate the temperature rise in March, requiring cautious interpretation of the results. Observations show a particularly strong increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures during this month – a rise that is more pronounced than in other seasons and not adequately reflected in model simulations.

How the heatwave affects people and the economy

Central Asia heavily relies on agriculture, which generates between 5 and 24 percent of GDP in these countries and provides employment for up to half the population. Extreme heat seriously disrupts work in this sector. In Uzbekistan in 2023, over 230 million working hours were lost due to high temperatures. In 2025, the heatwave coincided with critical periods in agriculture – fruit tree blossoming and spring wheat sowing in Kazakhstan – which may result in lower yields.

The problem is worsened by limited water resources, as the region largely depends on glacial meltwater for irrigation systems. Climate change affects the pace and rhythm of ice melt, leading to earlier thaws and reduced water flows during the growing season, when water demand is highest.

What does the future hold for Asia?

According to scientists, if the global average temperature rises by 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels, the risk of similar heatwaves will at least double, and their intensity could increase by another 2°C. This means that conditions once considered extreme could become regular occurrences. As a result, the region urgently needs to adopt adaptation measures – including adjusting agricultural calendars, implementing more resilient crop varieties, and developing efficient and water-saving irrigation systems.