May 23 this year. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released a forecast for the upcoming hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30 over the North Atlantic. It shows that 2024 will be the ninth consecutive year of above-average intensity of tropical storms over the Americas. There are many indications that the weather anomalies will break last year’s record.
Hurricane season 2024 – what awaits North and Central America?
According to NOAA, 17 to 25 storms with winds in excess of 65 mph could form over the Atlantic this year – according to current regulations, they will be named in order to more effectively inform the public of the dangers. Between four and seven of them have the potential to become Category 3 or higher hurricanes, with wind speeds exceeding 178 km/h.
By comparison, America’s “normal” hurricane season includes about 14 strong storms and three major hurricanes. In 2023, considered the fourth stormiest on record, as many as 20 storms were named, and seven of them deserved to be called hurricanes (winds above 119 km/h occurred). Only Hurricane Idalia made it over land, causing waves of up to 3.5 meters when it hit Florida’s beaches with winds of more than 200 km/h. In the United States, 12 people were killed and losses were estimated at $3.6 billion. In Cuba, 10,000. People were evacuated due to the risk of flooding.
Why are hurricanes becoming more frequent and more intense?
The upcoming hurricane season is 85 percent likely to be more intense than the norm. This is due to a number of factors that overlap, creating favorable conditions for the development of tropical cyclones.
First, the water temperature in the Atlantic remains exceptionally high, close to previous records. This accumulation of heat in large bodies of water promotes the formation of violent tropical storms. Second, in the spring of 2024. the warm phase of the Southern Oscillation known as El Niño expires, giving way to a cool phase, or La Niña. This change means that the previously warm and dry weather in northwestern North America will change to cooler and wetter weather. Unstable conditions associated with the arrival of the La Niña phase significantly increase the risk of hurricane development.
The aforementioned factors are compounded by the gradual warming of the climate that has been observed for decades. Glaciers melting at an accelerating rate are increasing the amount of water in the ocean, and elevated sea levels mean a greater risk of devastating storms that regularly hit the southern coast of the United States and the Atlantic islands, especially Cuba.
Early warning system, or name the storm
NOAA’s warning is obviously not intended to cause panic among Americans. On the contrary, preparing the public for hurricane season is proving to be the most effective way to minimize the devastating effects of storms. According to the UN, in the 1970s. In the 1970s. Tropical cyclones have caused 350,000 deaths globally. Although weather anomalies have intensified in recent decades, the death toll declined to 20,000 between 2010 and 2019. This phenomenon is explained precisely by better preparation of infrastructure and citizens for sudden weather events.
While the early warning system in the United States is well-developed and seems to be working, many island nations still suffer huge losses from hurricanes. From May 27 to 30 this year. Antigua and Barbuda is hosting the Fourth International Conference on. Small Island Developing States (SIDS), which discusses, among other things. Strengthening resilience to weather disasters. At the same time, there is talk of expanding the scale that determines the severity of hurricanes to include the sixth, highest degree. Since 2013. Indeed, five cyclones with winds above 308 km/h have been observed in the Pacific Ocean, which are laboriously referred to as monster storms. According to meteorologists, they deserve special mention, especially since conditions for their development are increasingly favorable.
It is already known what names the storms will receive in the coming summer season. According to established rules, names are given alphabetically, alternating between female and male. Hurricane season in 2024. It will begin with a storm named Alberto. Beryl, Chris and Debby will appear next. The list, which includes a total of 21 items, closes with the name William. The question remains whether these names will suffice for the entire season – time will tell.
Photo. main: Wikipedia/Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC