Natural disasters and democracy – how floods and heatwaves affect elections

In 2024, climate-related disasters disrupted 23 rounds of elections in 18 countries worldwide. The latest report by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) suggests that extreme weather events may increasingly hinder citizens from casting their votes, with immature democratic systems in Africa and Asia likely to suffer the most.

Reaching polling stations is becoming more difficult?

Published on the occasion of Earth Day, the report The Impact of Natural Hazards on Elections summarizes referendums and elections conducted between 2006 and 2025. According to IDEA analysts, as many as 94 of them were disrupted due to natural disasters, particularly floods, fires, and extreme weather. Paradoxically, this problem affected not only developing countries of the Global South, but also the Czech Republic, Romania, Canada, and the United States.

In some cases, such as the presidential election in Mozambique in 2019, the outcome of the vote was clearly distorted by difficulties in reaching polling stations – Cyclone Idai caused flooding of thousands of roads, schools, and homes, forcing citizens to evacuate.

Natural disasters as a political factor

The report presents dozens of case studies illustrating the potential scale of climate-related disruptions to democratic political processes. In Peru, floods and related landslides are a recurring problem that physically prevent access to ballot boxes. In Indonesia, only 16 percent of polling stations are located in areas not threatened by flooding and river overflows, while in California two rounds of elections have already been disrupted by fires that forced the evacuation of 250,000 citizens.

Even heatwaves appear to affect the course of elections – since 2022, at least 10 such cases have been observed worldwide. The most unusual case was the parliamentary election in the Philippines in 2025, when, in temperatures reaching 47°C, voting machines overheated and began rejecting ballots. Much more often, however, the problem affects voters themselves, who must move through crowded cities in conditions dangerous to their health and wait in line at polling stations.

Democracy must also adapt

According to IDEA experts, public administration must take into account sudden meteorological events that may disrupt the conduct of elections. The first step in this direction is adjusting the electoral calendar. It is important that voting dates do not fall during periods of intensified natural disasters in a given country.

One of the co-authors of the study, Sarah Birch from King’s College London, points out that an example of such poor timing is the November elections in the United States, which coincide with the hurricane season. In the Canadian province of Alberta, elections will be moved next year from May to October to avoid the risk of wildfires.

Key to adapting democratic processes to climate change are also fast and precise early warning systems, as well as trained emergency and civil services that can support citizens, especially vulnerable social groups, in safely reaching polling stations. A democracy in which only the strong and resourceful vote ceases to be a democracy. The authors also point to the need for readiness to quickly issue temporary identity documents, relocate polling stations, and protect equipment and paper ballots from water as important preventive measures.

Equality of participation, the effectiveness of electoral management, and fairness in electoral competition are particularly vulnerable to the destruction of critical infrastructure and population displacement throughout the entire electoral cycle.

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Source:

Erik Asplund, Sarah Birch, Ferran Martínez i Coma, Managing Natural Hazards and Climate Risks in Elections, ISBN 978-91-8137-115-4, https://doi.org/10.31752/98760