Poland faces a hydrogeological low. Where could water run out?

The Polish Geological Institute – National Research Institute (PIG-PIB) has prepared a forecast of groundwater levels in Poland for September 2025. The study shows that in the central and eastern parts of the country, shallow wells may run dry in the coming weeks, and local water supply systems may face difficulties.

Hydrogeological low in 13 provinces?

The PIG-PIB forecast is based on the assumption that the current meteorological situation, namely the lack of rainfall across most of the country, will persist in the coming weeks. The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB) predicts that until the end of September, weekly precipitation totals will remain at 5–9 mm. The exceptions are Pomerania and mountainous areas.

It is worth recalling that a hydrogeological low is a phenomenon in which groundwater levels drop below warning thresholds, established on the basis of long-term measurements.

According to experts from PIG-PIB, a hydrogeological low may occur in the provinces of Podlaskie, Warmian-Masurian, Masovian, Lublin, Lesser Poland, West Pomeranian, Greater Poland, Kuyavian-Pomeranian, Łódź, Świętokrzyskie, Subcarpathian, Lower Silesian, and Silesian. Local declines in the first aquifer level are also expected in other parts of the country.

Water supply for Poles

Unlike many other countries already struggling with empty taps, Poland is not yet facing this worst-case scenario. According to PIG-PIB, until the end of September, the status of variable resource reserves will remain at a safe level across most of the country. Their depletion is possible in the east and south, particularly in Podlasie, Lublin, parts of Lesser Poland and Greater Poland, as well as the eastern part of the Łódź province. In these areas, a hydrogeological threat status will apply.

The authors of the forecast point out that the current number of groundwater intakes registered in Poland exceeds 20,000. Groundwater provides more than 70 percent of water distributed through water supply systems and additionally supports various ecosystems. In September, water utilities drawing from the shallowest layers may face extraction restrictions.

Are we facing drought?

The PIG-PIB forecast coincided with an announcement by Polish Waters about the hydrological situation in the country. As of 11:00 a.m. on September 1, no meteorological or hydrological warnings were in effect in Poland. However, water flows below the average low flow (SNQ) persisted in 88 areas.

Low flows have been recorded continuously since April in the Pisa catchment and on the middle reaches of the Warta and Narew rivers. In the past 10 days, hydrological drought warnings were issued for the catchments of the Wieprz, Wisłok, Bug, Bystrzyca, and many sections of the Vistula. Last week, Warsaw recorded a historic low water level – at the Bulwary Station, there were only 9 cm of water.

The Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation – National Research Institute (IUNG-PIB), in its report for the period from June 21 to August 20, identified drought risks for maize for grain (87 communes), maize for silage (99 communes), fruit shrubs (29 communes), and legumes (7 communes). The lowest climatic water balance (CWB) for that period was recorded in the Masovian and Lublin provinces (from -160 mm to -169 mm). Nationwide, the average CWB was also negative at -93 mm. This means that during the summer, evaporation and water transpiration from the soil exceeded precipitation totals.

Referring to data from the Clim4Cast project, an agrometeorologist from IUNG-PIB reported that the soil moisture deficit at depths up to 2 m in most of the country reaches 60–80 percent. This clearly reminds us that water in Poland is a threatened resource and requires responsible management.