Record low level of the Vistula in Warsaw. It could get even worse

This morning, the level of the Vistula at the Warsaw-Bulwary hydrological station was 9 cm, the lowest in history. Water levels are also low in other Polish rivers, and experts warn of a deepening hydrological drought across a larger area of the country. What are the forecasts for the coming weeks?

Historical minimum

At the beginning of September last year, we reported record low levels of the Vistula near Warsaw. This year the record has been broken, and on many sections sandy shoals have emerged. The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW-PIB) reports that this morning at the Warsaw-Bulwary station the water level was 9 cm – 1 cm less than over the weekend. Forecasts suggest that by Thursday the level may drop further – even down to 5 cm.

At the higher-lying Warsaw-Nadwilanówka station, the historical minimum of 55 cm was also broken – this morning gauges showed 39 cm. In Gusin, located even higher upstream, the water level is 8 cm, while in Puławy-Azoty it matched the 2016 minimum, dropping to 73 cm.
Due to the low water levels in the Vistula, the Warsaw Public Transport company suspended the ferry crossing on August 12 until further notice. The ferries Słonka, Pliszka and Wilga are not running.

What affects the low level of the Vistula in the capital?

Despite a relatively wet July with precipitation totals exceeding long-term averages, the upper Vistula catchment has been in the low-water zone for two weeks. At the Szczucin gauge, about 40 km north of Tarnów, the water level is 66 cm – 6 cm below the lowest level recorded in 2012; at the Karsy gauge, it is 84 cm, 8 cm below the minimum from the same year.

Differences in water levels also result from the width of the Vistula’s bed at particular gauging sections. On some stretches the river flows swiftly, with levels exceeding 200 cm. In Modlin, current gauge readings are 204 cm, but it is worth noting that this is the lowest level recorded in nearly 100 years. The current situation is clearly the result of long-lasting hydrological drought, which was observed in the Vistula basin already in spring and early summer, and which July’s rainfall failed to prevent.

The problem of low water levels of the Vistula in Warsaw is also linked to sand extraction from the riverbed. Already last year, voices were raised at the Wilanów district council calling for the closure of the local sandpit. Activists are collecting signatures for a petition to Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, urging him not to extend concessions for extraction companies operating in the capital. Opponents of the idea argue, however, that limiting sand extraction may increase the risk of flooding.

What is the situation on other rivers in Poland?

The low water level of the Vistula is not an exception nationwide. According to IMGW-PIB, the low-water zone currently covers 67 percent of Polish rivers, and at 260 hydrological stations flows are lower than the multi-year average low flow. This mainly concerns Vistula tributaries such as the Wieprz, Czarna Staszowska, Prądnik, Pilica, San and Wisłoka, as well as selected tributaries of the Oder, including the Bóbr, Nysa Kłodzka and Nysa Łużycka, along with the Kwisa (a tributary of the Bóbr).

According to meteorologists, the outlook is not encouraging. The long-term forecast does predict rainfall in the first week of September, but for the following month the weekly precipitation total in most of the country will not exceed 10 mm. Temperatures until the end of September are expected to remain relatively high, with average maximums between 17–21°C, which will further increase evaporation.

There is hope that the situation from last year will not repeat itself, when after prolonged drought the arrival of a rainy Genoa low from southern Europe led to a hydrological disaster in southern Poland.

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main photo credit: Pawel Kalisinki/Pexels