Record low water levels in the Vistula: drought in Poland is a fact

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On Friday, September 6th, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB) reported a dramatic situation on the Warsaw section of the Vistula River, with water levels continuing to drop. Over the weekend, new records were set, but according to meteorologists, there is no indication that the water levels will rise anytime soon. A hydrological drought prevails in the central and eastern parts of the country.

The Vistula is drying up

In the second half of August, a high-precipitation supercell storm hit the capital, bringing torrential rains and local flooding throughout the city. According to IMGW-PIB, more than 90 liters of water fell in Bielany in one day, while Okęcie recorded 120 liters. These rainfall records meant that on August 20th, the water level at the Warsaw-Nadwilanówka gauge was 96 cm. However, since August 27th, it has been consistently dropping—on September 3rd, it equaled the previous absolute minimum of 68 cm (from September 13, 2022), and on Sunday, September 7th, it reached a record low of 60 cm. A year ago, the water level at this location was 108 cm.

A similar trend was observed at all water gauge stations in the capital. At the Warsaw-Boulevards station, located near the Presidential Palace, the water level dropped to 25 cm on Sunday morning, breaking the previous record from August and September 2015, when the lowest recorded level was 26 cm. Just a year ago, the water level at Boulevards was 51 cm.

At the Dęblin station near Warsaw, the water level has also been consistently dropping in recent weeks, but it is still 60 cm higher than the record low recorded in June 1925, when the Vistula in this location was measured at just 66 cm. In Modlin, downstream from Boulevards, weekend measurements indicated 221 cm, just 7 cm above the absolute minimum from 1933.

The Warsaw Public Transport Authority announced on September 1st that, due to the low water levels, the free ferry services of Słonka, Pliszka, and Wilga have been suspended until further notice.

Why is the water level in the Vistula so low?

According to the analysis by the Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation – State Research Institute (IUNG-PIB), in the second half of August, agricultural drought was declared in as many as 13 provinces in Poland. Among the provinces most severely affected by water shortages is Mazovia. It does not help that August in Warsaw was record-breakingly wet, and in the second decade of August, the Climatic Water Balance (the difference between precipitation and evaporation) was positive, exceeding 40 mm.

Short-term rainfall, even if very intense, cannot make up for water deficits caused by permanent climate warming. This past winter was already too warm, and there was not enough snow for the meltwater to replenish Polish rivers. The average temperature in January was 0.9°C higher than the long-term average, and February was extremely warm, with an anomaly of as much as 5.8°C. This summer has also been extremely warm, and the beginning of September has been hot—on Friday, Legnica recorded 33.5°C, while in the entire Mazovian province, maximum temperatures exceeded 30°C. Although forecasts indicate a cooldown starting Tuesday, heavy rainfall is not expected at least until mid-September.

What is the situation in other parts of the country?

IMGW-PIB collects and analyzes water level data from 600 gauge stations across the country. On Friday, September 6th, 284 of these stations recorded flows below the multi-year average low, and 20 stations recorded record lows. This is the driest start to September since 2015. In total, 47 hydrological warnings were in effect, and 70% of the gauge readings were classified in the low water zone.

Water levels below the periodic minimum were recorded in the first week of September on the Narew River, including in Piątnica-Łomża (60 cm), on the Warta River in Burzenin (62 cm), on the Wisłoka River in Pustków (76 cm), and on the Biała River in Koszyce Wielkie (68 cm). In addition to Warsaw, low water levels on the Vistula were recorded in Zawichost, Wyszogród, Włocławek, Ustroń-Obłaźce, Toruń, Tczew, and Grudziądz. There is also little water in the Dunajec, a right-bank tributary of the Vistula.

In its analysis for the period from July 1 to August 31, IUNG-PIB estimated the average value of the Climatic Water Balance at -86 mm, which is 7 mm higher than in the previous two months. The worst situation is on the Mazovian Lowland, Podlasie, and Polesie, where the water deficit reached from -160 to -189 mm.

Poziom Wody w Wisle1
Map showing the extent of the hydrological drought in Poland as of September 6, 2024; source: IMGW-PIB HYDRO.
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