Return of El Niño in 2026? Forecasts point to possible heat

After a frosty winter, are we heading for a hot summer? Quite possibly. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has prepared an analysis of the likely development of the Southern Oscillation in 2026, suggesting that the warming phenomenon El Niño may return soon.

ENSO, or how the ocean controls global weather

In weather forecasts we usually hear about low and high pressure systems and incoming currents of warm and cold air. Few people realize, however, that the real conductor of global weather is the Pacific Ocean. It is above this ocean that the phenomenon known as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is observed, determining temperature and precipitation in tropical and subtropical zones and also affecting regions far from the equator.

The course of ENSO is determined by winds and by the temperature of surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Depending on these factors, the phenomenon takes a neutral phase, a warm phase (El Niño), or a cool phase (La Niña).

When El Niño occurs, the likelihood of breaking new global temperature records increases, explains Jennifer Francis from the Woodwell Climate Research Center. At the same time, the risk of floods increases in southern Europe, the southern United States, Peru, Argentina, Kenya, and Uganda, while the Asian monsoon season is usually drier.

La Niña fading, spring uncertain

Until mid-February global weather had been influenced by La Niña, which was unusually short and weak. The cool phase of ENSO usually lasts one to two years, but this one weakened after just a few months. According to the latest WMO forecast, from March to May 2026 there is a 60 percent probability that conditions will be in a neutral ENSO phase. What does this mean for the weather?

Experts from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) explain that the absence of a clearly defined La Niña or El Niño phase does not automatically mean moderate temperatures close to long-term averages. A neutral ENSO phase simply indicates that atmospheric circulation is not changing in a predictable way due to processes associated with the Southern Oscillation. In practice, the only conclusion for the coming spring is that the weather will be harder to predict.

The recent weak La Niña event is expected to fade into ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) -neutral conditions which may swing to a warming El Niño episode later this year, according to the latest WMO El Niño/La Niña Update.
Check out the full update 👉 https://t.co/BIPsbctstt pic.twitter.com/YuJ98I7xnZ

— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) March 3, 2026

Will El Niño bring more temperature records?

According to meteorologists from WMO, the probability of El Niño developing will increase from May, reaching about 40 percent by July and continuing to rise steadily. It appears that in the second half of 2026 we may enter the warm phase of ENSO, which is associated with a renewed large-scale increase in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This forecast is supported by NOAA calculations, according to which El Niño has a 60 percent probability of developing between July and September.

Looking at the history of meteorological measurements, El Niño episodes have meant an additional increase in the global average temperature of about 0.5°C, regardless of climate change caused by human activity. It is therefore not surprising that successive heat records were usually set during its occurrence. The year 2024, the warmest in the history of measurements, was clearly the result of the dominance of the El Niño trend that had already developed in 2023.

Many signs indicate that the coming summer may be very hot. For us this is a hint about where to plan a vacation, but globally ENSO index forecasts help save millions of dollars by supporting decision-making in sectors such as agriculture, healthcare, energy, and water management.