Sicily and Sardinia facing drought due to climate change

Two days ago, we wrote about the catastrophic floods in Lombardy and Piedmont, while Sicily and Sardinia—Italy’s two largest island regions, inhabited by approximately 5 million and 1.6 million people respectively—are struggling with increasingly severe droughts. Following an exceptionally dry autumn in 2023, the subsequent months brought further weather anomalies, with temperatures significantly exceeding norms. Despite water rationing, the islands’ water reservoirs are nearly depleted. Crops have been destroyed, and farmers are losing their jobs. Research by World Weather Attribution indicates that climate change plays a crucial role in intensifying these extreme events.

Climate change and extreme droughts

The droughts affecting Sicily and Sardinia are directly linked to global warming. According to analyses, the rise in global temperatures contributes to higher evaporation levels and reduced rainfall. In Mediterranean regions, where water resources are limited, any change in weather patterns has devastating effects.

In 2023, both islands experienced some of the most severe droughts in history, and World Weather Attribution estimates that these extreme events would be less likely without human-induced climate change. The drought leads not only to a reduction in water resources but also to changes in the landscape, soil degradation, and ecosystem weakening. These processes are exacerbated by increased water demand in agriculture and tourism, which are key sectors of the region’s economy.

Effects on agriculture

Sicily and Sardinia play a significant role in Italy’s agricultural production, accounting together for 17% of national output. Sicily is the main producer of citrus, olives, and grapes, while Sardinia specializes in wheat and barley cultivation. The impact of the drought on these crops has been catastrophic—in the first quarter of 2024 alone, wheat yields in some areas fell by up to 70%, resulting in significant financial losses. It’s worth noting that in 2022, Italy’s wheat exports reached a value of $216 million, making Italy the 25th largest wheat exporter in the world.

The agricultural lobby Coldiretti reported that in southern Italian regions, over 33,000 people lost their jobs in the agricultural sector due to difficult climatic conditions. The drought has forced farmers to invest in costly irrigation systems, which, although helpful in the short term, do not solve the problem in the long run. The level of groundwater has drastically fallen, further limiting irrigation possibilities, deepening agricultural problems, and affecting the economic situation of the region.

Aging water infrastructure

Issues related to drought are exacerbated by aging water infrastructure on Sicily and Sardinia. Sicily relies on 29 dams built over 40 years ago, which currently retain significantly less water than in previous years. This condition is not only due to low rainfall but also to sediment accumulation, which reduces the capacity of reservoirs. Moreover, according to national statistics office ISTAT data, in 2022, Sicilian water systems lost over 51% of water, amounting to about 240 million m³ annually. The situation on Sardinia is similar—with water losses amounting to 52.8%.

The situation is further complicated by inefficient sewage infrastructure and agricultural runoff, which pollute rivers. Additionally, the regions struggle with limited water treatment capabilities, complicating water quality management.

As a result of these difficulties, dozens of municipalities have introduced long-term water rationing, negatively affecting residents and tourists. In response to the crisis, in June 2024, Sicilian authorities received the first €92 million from a fund worth €1.6 billion, designated for modernizing water infrastructure and increasing the region’s drought resilience.

Social consequences of drought

Tourism, also a major pillar of the economies of Sicily and Sardinia, is feeling the effects of climate change. Extreme heat and water shortages make these regions less attractive to tourists, leading to a decline in revenue from this sector. High temperatures during the peak tourist season deter visitors, and authorities face the challenge of balancing water demand in tourism with limited resources.

In addition to the direct impact on agriculture and tourism, the drought also has broad effects on local communities. Reduced harvests contribute to rising food prices, impacting the budgets of residents of these regions. Meanwhile, the loss of jobs in the agricultural sector and reduced tourist numbers lead to increased social tensions and deepening inequalities.

What future awaits these islands?

Experts emphasize that decisive action is needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to changing climatic conditions to mitigate the growing effects of extreme droughts. Analyses conducted by World Weather Attribution indicate that reaching a global warming level of 2°C, which is possible as early as the 2050s, regions like Sicily and Sardinia may face even more serious challenges. Water resources are a critical strategic element for these areas, and their effective management will be crucial for maintaining economic stability in the coming decades.