Snow on extinction. What will Polish winters look like?

Snowy winters, postcard-like landscapes, children throwing snowballs – sound familiar? Are you lucky enough to experience this every year? Maybe it won’t be long now. Forecasts by the Institute of Environmental Protection – National Research Institute (IOŚ-PIB) leave no illusions – snow cover in Poland will disappear, and by the end of the 21st century it may become rare in many places. Is this just a whim of the weather, or a permanent change that will affect our lives more than we think?

Event scenarios

It may turn out that in a few decades snowy winters in Poland will be only a vague memory. The forecasts published by IOŚ-PIB are unequivocal – the country’s snow cover will melt not only figuratively, but also literally. The experts analyzed two scenarios: a moderate one (RCP4.5), which assumes a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and a pessimistic one (RCP8.5), in which the world does nothing to halt ongoing global warming.

What numbers do these forecasts show? In the first scenario, the number of days with snow will decrease by 25 to 44 days per year, with the north and east of Poland suffering the greatest losses. In the pessimistic scenario, the differences are even more severe – in the mountains and the northeast, winters will be shortened by up to 67 days! To put it bluntly – in many places snow will become a rarity, and in cities such as Warsaw and Wroclaw, it may disappear from the landscape altogether.

What about the thickness of the snow cover? Here, too, forecasts leave no illusions. In many regions of the country, especially in the west and center, the snow cover will almost completely disappear by the end of the 21st century. In the mountains, its average thickness may drop to 0.8 cm, which means that skiers in Poland will have to come to terms with the reality of artificial snowmaking or… switch to summer activities.

Snow disappearing – who is really affected?

Snowy winter is not only white landscapes and snowdrifts up to the waist. It is also a natural water storage mechanism that has regulated the availability of water resources in Poland for centuries. When the snow cover melts slowly, the water soaks into the soil, recharging ground resources and rivers, providing moisture for plants and animals during the spring growing months. But what if the snow disappears from the winter landscape?

That’s right. Winters in Poland are getting warmer and warmer, and the snow cover, if it appears at all, is unable to fulfill its retention role. What is the effect of this? Spring water supplies are not replenished as they used to be, and soils are drying out faster. Just a few decades ago, rivers were fed by snowmelt; today, they increasingly start the season with low water levels. If we add longer periods without precipitation and more frequent heat waves, we have a ready recipe for drought as early as April.

Lack of snow also means a greater risk of flash floods. When rain falls instead of snow – and we’re seeing more and more of this in the winter – the soil, stripped of its natural protective layer, is unable to hold this water. Everything then flows down the rivers in an instant, instead of feeding the water system gradually, over the following months. What will be the consequences of this? If the forecasts come true, we are facing a whole new hydrological reality, in which snow ceases to play its role as a natural water store. The question is whether we can prepare for it.

There wasn’t enough snow…

If you were under the impression that this winter the snow appeared only for a while and immediately disappeared, you are right. In western Poland, the snow cover lasted an average of… 5 days. In the south, snow lasted about 50 days less than the 1991-2020 average. Even in the mountains, where a white winter should be a certainty, the numbers don’t look good this year. In the first days of January, the snow cover on Kasprowy Wierch was only 14 cm, and by the end of February, IMGW-PIB recorded 75 cm of snow. For comparison, in the post-war period the highest snow cover on Kasprowy was recorded in 1995, when it was 355 cm.

What does this mean? That water levels in rivers at the start of the growing season are at record lows. IMGW-PIB had already warned last month that low water levels had been recorded at more than half of the water gauge stations, and the situation was getting worse.

Under normal spring conditions, water from snowmelt should soak into the soil, filling reservoirs and flowing into rivers. But when snow is in short supply, and the rain quickly runs down dried soil – we start the growing season with a moisture deficit. Farmers are already sounding the alarm that soils are dry, and without solid rainfall in March and April, it promises to be a tough season.

What can we do?

Every time the topic of water shortages comes up, we hear the same refrain: save water. Well, okay, but will that really solve the problem? On a national scale – I dare to doubt it. What we really need is a change in thinking about water.

First – let’s get used to the fact that there will be less and less of it. Second – let’s not delude ourselves that it will always remain cheap. Sooner or later, water bills will rise, and not gradually, but by leaps and bounds, when politicians decide to make changes just between one election and the next.

So what can we do? Let’s collect rainwater instead of watering with tap water. Let’s sow flower meadows instead of English lawns, which require hectoliters of water. Let’s reuse water where possible. But these are just household solutions, and the real revolution is needed elsewhere – in agriculture.

This is what consumes the most water in the country, although CSO data can be misleading – we just… don’t collect accurate data on this consumption. And what and what quality crops grow in the fields will translate directly into our wallets. Declining yields are not just a problem for farmers – it’s more expensive food for everyone. That’s why if retention really needs to be implemented somewhere and change the current status quo, it’s in farm fields.

If we don’t change anything? Well, then we will be left with … well, that’s what. And this “something” may not like us very much.