Soil degradation could force migration of hundreds of millions of people

Progressive soil degradation threatens to reduce agricultural productivity and dramatically increase the scale of forced migration, according to a recent report by the NGO Save Soil. Its authors argue that investment in improving soil health should be a socioeconomic priority.

A twofold increase in forced migration by the end of the 21st century.

Soil degradation, climate change and food insecurity are a trio of closely related problems that threaten global stability. This thesis has become the thrust of a report prepared by Save Soil based on analyses by leading international organizations, including the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). The study’s conclusions indicate that the number of people forced to resettle could double by the end of this century.

Climate migration is a problem that is clearly gaining in intensity and, contrary to appearances, is not exclusively associated with disasters such as hurricanes and floods. Forced displacement is also a consequence of slow processes that are changing living conditions in the region – these include rising sea levels and prolonged droughts. And while climate change is a key factor in environmental migration, land degradation acts as a multiplier, reducing the resilience of societies to droughts and floods.

Regions particularly at risk of migration

Save Soil cites the Groundswell report, prepared by World Bank experts, which estimates that climate change will force 216 million people to migrate internally by 2050. The problem will be particularly acute in six regions: Sub-Saharan and North Africa, East Asia, South and Central Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe. In sub-Saharan Africa, up to 86 million people may be forced to relocate.

Climate migration within national borders will, over time, deplete resources in some regions and drive citizens to seek better living conditions in other countries. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), more than 1 billion citizens living in coastal areas will be affected by climate risks by 2050, prompting hundreds of millions to migrate. As an additional threat, analysts consider the policies of Donald Trump, whose import tariffs could increase economic pressure in many regions of the world.

Desertification in the world

Soil degradation is closely linked to the desertification process, which, according to the UNCCD, could affect up to 5 billion people by the end of this century. Caused by climate change, the long-term scarcity of soil moisture is leading to a significant reduction in agricultural productivity and forcing entire populations to migrate to more fertile areas. The UNCCD estimates that areas equivalent to half of Australia’s territory have already permanently changed from wet to dry, and the lack of rainfall has become a serious problem for populations living off crops, livestock and forestry.

Particularly worrisome are forecasts for Europe, where as much as 15 percent of the territory is expected to shift to a class with a higher dryness index by 2100 if high levels of greenhouse gas emissions continue. The threat of desertification also affects much of the United States, Central America, the Amazon, Chile, the Mediterranean basin, the Atlantic coast of sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Africa, South Asia and the southern part of Australia. Unfortunately, nowhere in the world is the transformation of dry areas into wetlands forecast, so the global trend is decidedly pessimistic.

How does soil degradation affect agricultural production?

Degraded soil is characterized by low organic matter content and loss of water-holding capacity. As a result, the land becomes extremely vulnerable to climate shock, including drought. Globally, 20 percent of the land area covered by vegetation is experiencing a steady decline in productivity, most often caused by unsustainable soil and water management practices.

What is the situation in each region?

• Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to lose 17-22 percent of its crop by 2050 if high emissions continue. In Kenya, corn production could fall by as much as 50 percent.
• In Europe, soil degradation is primarily associated with severe erosion, which already covers 12 million hectares of agricultural land. Each year, agricultural productivity falls by 0.43 percent due to this, equivalent to 1.25 billion euros. Nutrient imbalances are also observed on 74 percent of farmland.
• In India, 33 percent of the territory is affected by soil degradation, the main cause of which is water erosion. It causes annual losses of $162 billion in grain, oil and pulses production.
• Central Asia has seen a 30 percent decline in crop yields over the past 30 years. In addition to climatic soil erosion, intensive agricultural practices and deforestation are a problem.
• Australia is struggling with soil salinization, which has so far affected 1 million hectares of farmland and threatens a further 2.8-4.5 million hectares. The causes are attributed to the depletion of natural vegetation, which has upset the hydrological balance.
• In South America, 75 percent of land is already classified as degraded. Annual losses in agricultural production due to this are estimated at $60 billion.

A Save Soil report warns that due to soil degradation, global food production could decline by up to 12 percent over the next 25 years, while the Earth’s population is expected to grow to 9.7 billion people over the same period. Insufficient supply could increase food prices by 30 percent, and increasing hunger threatens to develop civil unrest, conflict and mass migration.

How can the process of soil degradation be stopped?

To avert a global catastrophe, it is necessary not only to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also to fundamentally change the way land is managed and used. Healthy soil plays a key role in climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts, and the basis for soil revitalization is increasing organic matter content to the desired 3-6 percent. Regenerative agriculture, which includes practices such as crop rotation, agroforestry, controlled grazing and no-till, offers great hope in this context. Unfortunately, its implementation in some regions is hampered by the high level of fragmentation of farmland.

Save Soil advocates reallocating climate funds in such a way that they support farmers in implementing sustainable practices and stimulate the development of infrastructure related to soil improvement. A good example is a World Bank project in Niger, which has given 500,000 farmers access to seeds of more drought-tolerant crop varieties and efficient irrigation technologies. Such initiatives are key to increasing food security in the regions and an important element in reducing climate migration.