The third driest march in Poland’s history is behind us

Despite a frosty and snowy winter, the spring hydrological reality is grim – according to experts from IMGW-PIB, this year’s March was exceptionally warm and dry, which does not bode well for the beginning of the growing season. The precipitation deficit is already visible in Poland’s river basins.

Spring 2026 – above-average warm

We sometimes complain about morning frosts and cooler gusts of wind, eagerly awaiting summer and basking in the sun. However, most of us are not aware that temperatures in recent weeks have been significantly higher than the average for the 1991–2020 period. The latest report of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute classifies this year’s March as extremely warm, with an anomaly reaching +3.3°C.

The spatially averaged air temperature last month reached as much as 6.4°C and was only 0.3°C lower than the warmest March in Poland’s history two years ago. This year, the warmest conditions so far have been recorded in Podkarpacie (7.1°C), while the coldest were observed in the Sudetes (5.2°C). Thermometers at individual synoptic stations in Kraków, Wrocław, Kozienice and Rzeszów even showed 19°C at times!

This trend corresponds to the phenomenon of climate warming observed in most regions of the world. According to ERA5 data, March 2026 was the fourth warmest in Europe’s history, with an anomaly of 2.27°C. In the United States, meanwhile, the average air temperature last month broke all records and was more than 5°C higher than the long-term norm.

Extremely dry march

While a warm spring does not raise major objections, the IMGW-PIB reports on precipitation totals are concerning. Across the country, last month’s total amounted to only 10.8 mm, which was as much as 27 mm below the norm for this month, based on measurements from 1991–2020. This is the third lowest result in the history of Polish synoptic observations.

The precipitation deficit affected almost the entire country, and only the natural environments of Podbeskidzie, the Beskids, Podhale and the Tatra Mountains could enjoy rainy weather. This is particularly problematic given that January and February also saw spatially averaged precipitation totals in Poland significantly below average. According to the IMGW-PIB classification, these were very dry months, with March particularly deserving of this label. As a result, as the authors of the analysis report, the climatic water balance in the third month of the year was negative across most of the country, reaching as low as -50 mm.

Is there a chance for improvement? According to IMGW-PIB forecasts, precipitation in the coming days will rather be scarce and intermittent, only locally becoming moderate. The first half of May is expected to be somewhat more rainy, but we still have to wait for this forecast to materialize.

Less and less water in rivers

A negative climatic balance means low soil moisture and does not bode well for germinating and growing plants, especially wild ones that rely solely on rainfall. The exceptionally dry March is also reflected in the country’s hydrological situation. On April 14 this year, as many as 52 percent of measurement stations indicated low water levels, and this percentage has been steadily increasing in recent days. Water levels are consistently declining, among others, in the Nida, Wisłok, Supraśl, Kłodnica and Kwisa rivers, and locally also in the Vistula and Oder.

The water deficit is also indicated by the April bulletin of the Polish Geological Survey, which forecasts the occurrence of hydrological low water conditions by the end of the month in the following voivodeships: Podlaskie, Mazowieckie, Lubelskie, as well as Zachodniopomorskie, Kujawsko-Pomorskie, Warmińsko-Mazurskie, Łódzkie and Świętokrzyskie.

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main photo: Rasa Kasparaviciene/Unsplash