War in Iran and CO2 emissions: 14 days like a whole year in Iceland

In the first two weeks, the conflict in the Middle East generated over 5 million tons of CO2 – more than Iceland’s annual carbon footprint. According to experts from the Climate & Community Institute, the climate cost of this war will burden the world for decades.

War CO2 emissions – a shocking balance

For centuries, armed conflicts have been assessed primarily in terms of human lives lost and material damage. Increasingly, however, the climate and environmental costs of war are also being discussed. The latest report from the Climate & Community Institute shows that new military technologies generate enormous CO2 emissions, and the conflict in the Middle East is depleting the global carbon budget faster than 84 countries combined.

Experts used a greenhouse gas emissions estimation methodology developed by Neimark, Belcher, Ashworth, and Larbi for a report evaluating the costs of the US occupation of Iraq, along with the 2024 guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Five main categories of war activities were considered: building destruction, destroyed fuels, fuel consumed, destroyed military equipment, and emissions from torpedoes and drones. Calculations show that from February 28 to March 14, the conflict in the Middle East generated 5.045 million tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e).

Infrastructure and fuels generate the largest climate costs

US-Israeli bombings of Iran have already affected over 20,000 buildings, including more than 16,000 residential units, over 3,000 commercial buildings, 77 medical facilities, and 69 schools. Assuming carbon costs at a conservative level of 408 kg CO2e per 1 m², experts from the Climate & Community Institute calculated that emissions related to the destruction of these buildings amounted to 2.415 million tons CO2e.

The second most significant item in Iran’s war carbon balance is burned fossil fuels. Israel bombed several oil storage facilities in Iran, and drone attacks caused fires and destruction in refineries and oil depots in Oman, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Kuwait. In turn, Iranian forces have damaged at least five tankers in the Strait of Hormuz since the beginning of the conflict. CO2 emissions resulting from the destruction of oil are estimated at 1.883 million tons CO2e.

In the first two weeks of the conflict, aircraft, support units, and vehicles consumed about 150–270 million liters of fuel, resulting in 529,000 tons CO2e. Destroyed aircraft and navy units contributed another 172,000 tons CO2e. Additionally, missiles and drones used in military operations contributed a total of 55,000 tons CO2e.

Carbon ballast for years to come

According to the authors, the carbon costs of the Middle East conflict will continue to rise. This is due both to the depletion of arsenals and the need to produce new weapons, and to uncontrolled burning of fossil fuels following attacks on oil infrastructure, as occurred during the Persian Gulf War.

However, the largest emissions will accompany post-war reconstruction, as analyses from other parts of the world indicate. Previous calculations by the Climate & Community Institute show, for example, that rebuilding Gaza and Lebanon will generate at least 24 times more emissions than the military actions themselves.

Patrick Bigger, one of the authors of the analysis, adds: Historically, every energy shock caused by the United States has been followed by a wave of new drilling, new LNG terminals, and new infrastructure. This war threatens to entrench dependence on coal and fossil fuels for generations to come.