War in Ukraine has generated 311 million tonnes of CO2 – new report reveals the scale of emissions

On 24 February, four years have passed since the outbreak of the full-scale war in our eastern neighbor. The sad anniversary has become an opportunity to summarize the humanitarian and… climatic damage that has occurred during this time. The latest report by the Initiative on GHG Accounting of War shows that the conflict in Ukraine generates enormous amounts of greenhouse gases, deepening environmental damage with each passing year.

Carbon balance of the four-year conflict

The report was prepared by a team of scientists representing the Initiative on GHG Accounting of War, the National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Lviv Polytechnic, the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute and the Kharkiv Aviation Institute, with support from the European Climate Foundation. For four years, it has been monitoring the climate impacts of military operations, preparing annual summaries of the damage.

Estimates for the period 24 February 2022 – 23 February 2026 indicate 311 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, a total corresponding to France’s annual emissions. If converted into social costs, assuming a rate of 185 dollars per 1 tCO2e, total climate damage already exceeds 57 billion dollars. During the COP30 summit in Brazil, the Ukrainian delegation openly announced that it would seek compensation from Russia under international claims mechanisms.

Scale of war-related emissions

The largest share in the carbon balance of the conflict came from military operations themselves, responsible for 37 percent of all emissions. Despite relatively stable front lines, constant attacks generate intensive fuel and ammunition consumption. As much as 90 percent of emissions from military activities come from the combustion of fossil fuels by tanks and combat aircraft.

Another 23 percent of CO2 equivalent emissions will result from the future reconstruction of destroyed infrastructure – residential buildings, industrial facilities, power plants, roads and so on. The greatest losses in this regard occurred in the first year of the conflict, but over the last 12 months the damage has increased compared to the previous year. The authors of the report draw attention to the carbon footprint of concrete and steel production, which are essential for rebuilding the country.

Deliberate attacks on energy infrastructure create another problem. Deprived of electricity and heating, citizens are forced to use diesel generators and other fossil fuel-powered devices, often among the most polluting. The war in Ukraine also generates emissions from civilian transport related to the flight and return of citizens.

War in Ukraine and climate change

In 2025 alone, 1.39 million hectares of the country burned in Ukraine – significantly more than in the period before the Russian invasion. These fires are responsible for 23 percent of war-related emissions, and experts from the Initiative on GHG Accounting of War point to their location in the immediate vicinity of the front line. Firefighting is severely hindered by shortages of personnel and firefighting equipment, as well as the closure of the country’s airspace.

The authors of the report emphasize the close link between emissions generated by the war in Ukraine and fires triggered by drought and high temperatures. The summers of 2024 and 2025 were particularly dangerous in this regard, and each subsequent year of fighting means the emission of tens of tonnes of greenhouse gases, accelerating climate change. The spread of fire is further facilitated by extensive environmental destruction, which disrupts the environment’s carbon sequestration potential.

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Source:
Lennard de Klerk, Mykola Shlapak, Sergiy Zbitsev, Viktor Myroniuk, Oleksandr Sohenskyi, Roman Vaysylyshyn, Svitlana Krakovska, Lidiia Kryshtop, Rostyslav Bun, Climate damage caused by Russia’s war on Ukraine, By the Initiative on GHG Accounting of War, February 2026