Polish rivers are drying up, and the IMGW forecasts violent storms

The reality in which we will face alternating droughts and floods seems increasingly near. Just this past weekend, the IMGW-PIB reported that low water levels in the Vistula had broken yet another set of historical records. For the coming week, meteorologists warn of a rapid rise in river levels due to severe storms.

Low water levels at the beginning of July

Since Sunday, the water level at the hydrological station in Warsaw-Boulevards has measured 13 cm – a full 7 cm below the historical minimum recorded in 2024. A record was also set in Nowogród on the Narew River, where this morning a level of –2 cm was recorded. In Ostrołęka, located downstream, a reading of 19 cm surpassed the absolute minimum from 2015 by 5 cm. At the Ptaki station on the Pisa River, the level is just 24 cm (17 cm below the absolute minimum), while in Nowe Miasto on the Pilica it is 31 cm (3 cm below the absolute minimum).

According to the IMGW-PIB bulletin issued this morning at 8:00 a.m., low water levels are being observed on most rivers in the Vistula basin. The situation is slightly better in the Oder basin, where some rivers are maintaining medium or even high water levels (e.g., on the Bystrzyca and Bóbr). Overall, 74% of hydrological stations across the country reported low water levels this morning. The central and northeastern parts of the country have remained in a hydrological drought zone for the past two weeks.

Let us recall that the route of the Vistula Ethnographic Expedition 3, which begins on July 16, had to be changed due to low water levels. Meanwhile, the Warsaw Public Transport Authority suspended the operation of tourist ferries connecting both banks of the Vistula as early as July 1 – the water level by the boulevards did not exceed 30 cm.

Will the situation reverse? A new hydrological threat

Climate change means not only global warming but above all increasingly frequent and intense weather anomalies. The low water levels in Polish rivers may change within a few days due to a low-pressure system moving over Poland today from the Apennine Peninsula. It will bring with it vast masses of warm and humid air, which tomorrow will cover the southeastern region of Poland.

What does this mean? Nothing good for tourists. Already today, heavy cloud cover will be accompanied by passing rain showers across most of the country, along with violent storms. Temperatures will remain high, reaching up to 33°C in the southeast.

Tomorrow, according to IMGW-PIB, daily rainfall totals in southern Poland may reach up to 40 mm, and storms—possibly with hail—will be accompanied by strong winds with gusts of up to 65 km/h. On Wednesday, forecasters expect up to 80 mm of rain in the east of the country and as much as 100 mm in the foothills of the Carpathians.

Experts from IMGW-PIB reassure the public that despite the forecasted heavy rainfall and the likelihood of a sudden rise in water levels, the risk of large-scale flooding in Poland remains low at this time. However, local flooding is to be expected, especially along smaller watercourses. Warning and alarm levels may be exceeded in mountainous and upland catchments, and in urban areas, there is a risk of flash floods.