Water war – the conflict between India and Pakistan intensifies

The situation on the India-Pakistan border is escalating. The main reason for the rising tension is the growing conflict over shrinking water resources. India is threatening to halt the cross-border flow of water, which Pakistan perceives as a precursor to military action. Is this already an open water war?

India withdraws from a long-standing agreement

On Wednesday, May 7, Indian missiles struck nine targets within Pakistan, killing eight people. From India’s perspective, this action was retaliation for a terrorist incident in April of this year that resulted in the deaths of Indian tourists. The next step involves halting the flow of the Indus waters and closing the border crossing. Speculations are emerging that India is aiming to undermine the provisions of the treaty that, despite numerous border tensions, has remained in effect until now.

In 1960, India and Pakistan, with the mediation of the World Bank, signed the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). Its primary purpose was to regulate the distribution of the Indus river system’s waters. According to the treaty, India gained control over the three eastern tributaries (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej), while Pakistan received control over the three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab), ensuring access to about 80% of the system’s water resources. The treaty requires the exchange of information between the parties and prohibits unilateral termination of the agreement.

The structure of the river network and its course through Indian territory grant India the real ability to control the flow of water directed towards Pakistan. Although there is currently no infrastructure to completely stop the flow, India can modify its intensity, which, in practice, could result in periodic shortages or surpluses of water on the Pakistani side. Such actions, though formally within legal boundaries, understandably raise concerns in Islamabad regarding the country’s water security.

Terrorists and the water war

Amid growing demand and dwindling water resources, Indian authorities began considering renegotiating the treaty as early as 2023. However, recent events have cast doubt on the very existence of the agreement. What do terrorists have to do with it?

On April 22, 2025, in the area of Pahalgam, located in Jammu and Kashmir under Indian administration, a terrorist attack targeted a tourist resort. A group of armed attackers detained the tourists staying there. As a result, 26 men were killed, 25 of whom were Indian citizens.

Initially, responsibility for the attack was claimed by an organization calling itself The Resistance Front (TRF). However, in the following days, its representatives retracted the statement, claiming the initial information was the result of hackers allegedly linked to Indian intelligence services.

In response, on May 7, the Indian army conducted an airstrike that – according to official reports –targeted infrastructure belonging to terrorist organizations responsible for the attack. The Indian government justified the operation as a retaliatory action in defence of national security.

Kashmir has been a disputed region since the independence of India and Pakistan. However, in recent years, Indian government actions have intensified the conflict. TRF’s activities began in 2019 as a reaction to increased Indian control over Jammu and Kashmir. Among the many other causes of the conflict stemming from the change in the region’s status, the control over water resources plays a significant role. It is through the territory of Jammu and Kashmir that the Indus tributaries flow–waters that theoretically belong to Pakistan. India cites local terrorist activity as one of the pretexts for taking control of the water.

Environmental degradation and the water war

The ongoing reduction in access to fresh water is a direct consequence of disruptions in the natural hydrological cycle. The primary causes of this situation are rooted in intensive human industrial activity, contributing to global climate change. Rising average temperatures are extending drought periods, particularly severe in regions already highly sensitive to hydrological stress – such as Africa, the Middle East, and much of Asia with arid and semi-arid climates.

The war over water is already happening today, although not always with weapons in hand. It takes different forms – sometimes hidden behind diplomacy, sometimes behind investments in infrastructure. In Ethiopia, the construction of the Grand Renaissance Dam may significantly limit the flow of water from the Nile to Sudan and Egypt. In the Middle East, access to the Jordan River remains one of the flashpoints, although not the main cause of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The most serious situation, however, is emerging between India and Pakistan. Both countries possess nuclear weapons, with the unresolved dispute over the Indus waters lingering in the background. The risk of escalation is small, but no one needs to imagine what a nuclear war would entail.

Even though tensions on this border have not been this high in years, there remains a margin of hope for stepping back. Water withheld for one’s own benefit, if it leads to hunger in a neighbouring country, will ultimately backfire on those who hoarded it.