Polski
Business and economics, Issue 3/2026
Weather extremes the biggest economic threat of the next decade
Mar
The latest edition of the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risk Factors Report leaves no illusions: extreme weather events will dominate the global economy in the next 10 years. The Global Risks Report 2026 also warns of biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse.
Experts on the threat to the world
It is impossible to make responsible political and economic decisions without reliable forecasts for the future. With this in mind, the World Economic Forum publishes an annual report based on the opinions of risk analysts, key politicians and business leaders. In preparing this year’s Global Risks Report 2026 , the opinions of 1,300 experts were gathered on key risks to world stability in the short term (in 2026), medium term (until 2028) and long term (until 2036).
Responses gleaned from the global survey show that the top risk factors for the world over the next two years include geo-economic conflict, disinformation and social polarization. Weather extremes were identified as the fourth greatest threat. Increasing pressure on the Earth’s climate and natural resources is most evident in the 10-year outlook: experts clearly indicated that meteorological anomalies will become the most serious risk by 2036. Loss of biodiversity came in second place, and critical changes in planetary systems, such as rising sea levels and the disappearance of permafrost, came in third.
Will we pay for climate ignorance?
The Global Risks Report 2026 shows a decline in importance (compared to last year’s edition) of climate change and the state of nature in the eyes of global experts – with weather extremes dropping from second to fourth place in the two-year outlook, and pollution from sixth to ninth. WEF analysts believe this depreciation is a result of increasing political instability and socioeconomic tensions.
The report’s authors emphasize that while more frequent and intense droughts, fires, floods and heat waves may increase social polarization, opposition to climate change mitigation efforts is becoming more pronounced. They see the weakening of multilateral, international cooperation and the rise of vested national interests as a particular threat. Increasing competition for natural resources and the exponential increase in energy demand, driven mainly by the growth of data centers, are also growing concerns in their view.
Risk assessment on a national basis
An interesting picture of the challenges facing the world in the next decade is provided by an analysis of expert forecasts by country. Weather extremes ranked among the top three risk factors in Austria, Greece, Japan and Poland, among others. In contrast, in most of the less developed countries of Asia and Africa, where climate change seriously threatens millions of citizens from the poorest strata of society, economic and social factors such as inflation, unemployment and deterioration of public health are considered the main risks.
Weather extremes will become increasingly costly
The WEF report points out that modern infrastructure is increasingly vulnerable to both sudden weather events and long-term climate change. This is confirmed by study after study and analysis proving the rising costs of natural disasters.
Examples can be multiplied. Heat waves overload the power grid due to increased use of air conditioning, and solar panels prove to work less efficiently in very high temperatures. The potential of photovoltaics is also limited by devastating hail storms, which have been increasing in intensity and frequency in recent years.
Experts also suggest that water treatment costs will be permanently increased due to infrastructure damage (after heavy rains, for example) or rising groundwater salinity. Moreover, the destruction of critical infrastructure during extreme weather events – for example, as a result of floods that cause utility service failures – could pose a much greater economic risk than the direct effects of natural disasters. The situation is made more difficult by the fact that preventive measures are still considered too costly and are sometimes postponed in favor of seemingly more urgent investments.
Experts are concerned about the slowly increasing weather extremes of drought. In many regions of the world, hydroelectric power plants will soon lose their basis and sense of function – the countries most vulnerable to costs from this include China, Jordan, Iraq, Morocco and Syria. Declining water levels along shipping routes could also severely disrupt global supply chains. Between 2023 and 2024, water loss in the Panama Canal forced a reduction of more than 30 percent in the number of ships passing through.
Global Risks Report 2026 also addresses the problem of permanent infrastructure damage associated with, among other things, the collapse of cities due to excessive groundwater extraction. Weather extremes accelerate this erosion, threatening streets, buildings and critical public facilities, exposing the economy to huge costs.
Actions for today
The WEF report focuses not only on risks, but also on ways to minimize them. According to the authors, public-private partnerships will remain key to future infrastructure expansion and reducing its vulnerability to weather extremes in the coming decade. Extensive cooperation in this area is important because of the dynamism and flexibility of the private sector, which has well-developed strategies for minimizing losses.
Global Risks Report 2026 emphasizes that climate considerations should be at the center of critical infrastructure planning. It is crucial to understand that higher investment costs today are typically offset by long-term savings in facility maintenance and insurance.
pic. main: Sadiq Nafee/Unsplash
In writing the article, I used:
Global Risks Report 2026, World Economic Forum, ISBN: 978-2-940631-60-5
