Will China become the new climate leader?

The president of the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, André Corrêa do Lago, praised China’s role as crucial to the momentum of the global green transition. This assessment is supported by a report published yesterday by Carbon Brief, which points to structural changes in CO2 emissions in the Middle Kingdom. Is Beijing taking advantage of the weakened climate ambitions of the United States to position itself as a global leader?

Emissions have stopped rising

For decades, China was primarily associated with the rapid growth of greenhouse gas emissions. Its total emissions remain the highest in the world, but the latest data show a clear slowdown in this trend. According to the new Carbon Brief report, in the third quarter of 2025, CO2 emissions did not increase compared to the same period last year. This continues the tendency observed since March 2024, when emissions stabilized for the first time in several years.

The main reason for the slowdown in emissions growth is the rising number of electric vehicles on Chinese city streets. Road transport emissions dropped by 5 percent year-on-year. Further coal restrictions have driven technological innovation in the cement and steel industries, and the only sector still recording strong growth in emissions is the chemical industry.

It is worth noting that emissions from the power sector have remained stable, even though electricity demand growth accelerated in the first half of the year from 3.7 to 6.1 percent.

China is investing in renewable energy

In contrast to the United States, which is slowing the development of wind power in favor of oil and gas extraction, Beijing’s authorities are investing heavily in renewable energy sources. The Carbon Brief report shows that year-on-year, solar energy production grew by an impressive 46 percent in the third quarter of 2025, while wind energy output increased by 11 percent.

Analysts estimate that if the current trend continues, by the end of 2025 China could achieve an actual decline in national CO2 emissions. Although the drop will likely be less than 1 percent, halting the growth of emissions on such a massive scale is a significant breakthrough.
It is also worth noting that as recently as 2017, emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production totaled less than 10 gigatonnes of CO2, rising to over 12 gigatonnes by 2024. The slowdown of this negative trend in the world’s largest emitter bodes very well for the future.

Ambitious plans, new technologies

The China Wind Energy Association has announced that over the next five years, at least 120 gigawatts (GW) of new wind power capacity will be added annually. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association has set similarly ambitious goals, projecting that between 235 and 270 GW of solar power will be installed in 2026, rising to 280–340 GW by 2030.

The rapid expansion of renewables has another important dimension – China is already becoming a technological leader in wind energy and electromobility. The Dak Cheung wind farm being developed in Laos will be the largest project of its kind in Southeast Asia and is expected to supply electricity to around one million households each year.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China now produces 60 percent of the world’s green technologies, including 80 percent of all photovoltaic panels and 75 percent of electric vehicles. Behind the scenes at COP30, analysts suggest that Beijing may use the decline in U.S. climate ambitions as an opportunity to strengthen its position in the global renewable technology supply chain.