Will one of the world’s largest airports sink?

In the Philippines, one of the world’s largest airports is under construction—the New Manila International Airport (NMIA). With a $15 billion investment, the project aims to boost the economy, expand tourism, trade, and investments. NMIA is set to become the country’s key transport hub. However, according to a Global Witness investigation, the airport may not survive for more than a few decades. Experts warn that within 30 years, it faces the risk of flooding due to rising sea levels and sinking land.

The risk of flooding and land subsidence

Experts raise alarms that the sea level rise projections used in the environmental assessments for the airport’s construction in Manila Bay have been drastically underestimated. Scientific data indicates that sea levels in the area are rising at a rate of 13–15 mm per year, nearly three times higher than the projections in the project documentation. Combined with land subsidence—partly caused by excessive groundwater extraction—this could destabilize the site on which the airport is being built.

Olaf Neussner, a climate change and disaster management specialist, warns that in just 30 years, high tides could regularly flood the runways, while storms and tsunamis could shut down the airport for weeks. Neussner also highlights that the sheer weight of the airport’s infrastructure could accelerate land subsidence, increasing the risk of flooding and other disasters.

One of the largest airports in the world is built on unstable ground

NMIA is being constructed on reclaimed land, a process that involves filling marine areas with vast amounts of sand. However, such reclaimed lands are highly prone to sinking, increasing the risk of infrastructure damage in the future. A similar issue affected Japan’s Kansai Airport, which partially sank underwater within 25 years of its opening. Experts fear NMIA may suffer the same fate.

How did this project getapproved?

San Miguel Corporation found a way to bypass regulations. In 2023, the Philippine president suspended all land reclamation projects in Manila Bay to assess their environmental impact. However, NMIA avoided this ban—official documents did not classify the project as land reclamation but rather as land development. That was enough. Thanks to this loophole, construction proceeded without more thorough environmental reviews.

A highly controversial project

The airport’s construction has had a severe environmental impact. In Manila Bay, hundreds of hectares of mangroves have been cut down. Fishermen report that the sand extraction for the airport’s foundation destroyed marine ecosystems, leading to a drastic decline in fish stocks.

Despite promises to restore the wetlands, San Miguel Corporation’s efforts are under scrutiny. Scientists accuse the company of replanting the wrong tree species, which could worsen environmental degradation.

The project also forced the relocation of over 700 families, many of whom have yet to receive proper compensation. Residents claim they were forced to demolish their own homes to be eligible for any financial assistance.

Many displaced families received only $4,290 in compensation, an amount insufficient to buy a new home or even a small piece of land. Worse still, to receive the payout, they had to sign agreements promising not to join protests against the airport’s construction. Calling this voluntary would be misleading—it was closer to coercion.

Construction delays

The project was expected to move forward rapidly, but another issue has emerged—a shortage of raw materials. Dutch company Boskalis, which was contracted to supply sand, suddenly ended its cooperation. Officially, the reason was a lack of materials, but the company had previously promised to restore wetlands, a commitment it ultimately failed to fulfill. As a result, San Miguel Corporation admitted that it currently has only 80% of the required sand, leading to significant delays.

The airport was scheduled to open in 2027, but this deadline is becoming increasingly unrealistic. Material shortages, growing protests, and scientists sounding the alarm all raise serious concerns that the land beneath the airport may not be stable enough to support it.

If sea levels continue to rise and the ground keeps sinking, NMIA may never see its first flight. Instead of a symbol of modernization, the Philippines could end up with the most expensive failed investment in history—one that literally sinks.