Each new day of October begins with an increasingly cooler morning. And this makes us slowly start thinking about the coming winter. When will it come? Will it be very frosty? Should we expect the winter of the century? We checked and share the latest forecast from IMGW-PIB, straight from the Department of Meteorological Analysis and Long-Term Forecasting. In that case, what is the predicted weather for winter? Here’s what we can expect in the coming months.
What is the weather forecast for winter?
A very warm September gently transitioned into a warm October. Air temperatures across Poland will exceed recorded norms for the month over the past 30 years. This means, for example. average temperature above 7.9ºC in Suwalki and above 10.8ºC in Wroclaw. Precipitation, however, will remain within the norm as we know it from previous years.
November will not surprise us with temperatures, they will be within the range typical for this month. It will also turn out to be very wet. Even more than usual? Unfortunately, yes. So let’s get ready for the autumn malaise. The average air temperature will not fall below 0ºC, so we are unlikely to expect snow in November.
December, on the other hand, will be remarkable in every way. The average air temperature will exceed 1.6 ºC – 2.9 ºC in Gdansk and -1.8 ºC – 0.1 ºC in Suwalki. It will be above-average warm. It will be warmest in Szczecin, where the mercury poles may show an average of more than 1.4ºC – 3.0ºC. Precipitation will also exceed the norm of previous years. It will drop more than 30.5 mm of rain in Wroclaw and even more than 73.4 mm in Koszalin. Due to the light frost at night, we may be surprised by snow, but due to positive temperatures during the day it will not last long.
Only January 2024 will bring us winter. The predicted normal air temperature means that temperatures will already drop below 0ºC across the country. The coldest may be in Suwalki from -4.5ºC to -1.7ºC, and the warmest from -0.7ºC to 1.6ºC in Gdansk. Precipitation, in amounts above the known average, can take the form of snow. But how do we actually know this? Is this early forecast of winter weather trustworthy?
Is the long-term weather forecast reliable?
Experts at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management stipulate that their long-term weather forecast is experimental. What does it mean? That it is fraught with a high degree of uncertainty. Despite the increasing knowledge of weather processes and the growing computing power of computers, errors are still unavoidable. These are due to the fact that a wide variety of physical assumptions and mathematical equations are used in the calculations.
Another problem, making it difficult to predict the weather well in advance, is violent weather events. We’ve been getting more and more of them lately, and it’s hard for meteorologists to tell when and where they’ll appear. Usually these are local events. However, some of them affect the weather on a larger scale. Such is the case with El Niño. This year’s predicted winter weather bears the stamp of its influence.
El Niño and winter in Poland
How is it possible that such an exotically named phenomenon, can affect the weather in Europe? El Niño is observed when surface temperatures rise above average in the equatorial Pacific. It occurs periodically, every few years, most recently in 2019.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in June 2023, announced the redetection of the phenomenon. El Niño affects weather changes around the world. How does winter weather in Poland depend on it? It turns out that across the country we have more rain and snowfall and an unusually warm start to winter.
What winter 2023 will be like according to IMGW-PIB – summary
The first forecasts for winter give hope that we can save a little on heating our homes. In October, the average monthly air temperature hovered around 10ºC. November will traditionally overwhelm us with rainfall, and even more than usual. It is worth taking care of your physical and mental well-being during this time to avoid autumn depression.
The winter weather forecast by IMGW-PIB predicts that December will not yet bring a white winter. We can expect its beginnings only in January. So let’s stock up on raincoats and wellingtons so that the wet winter weather doesn’t stop us from relaxing outdoors and admiring the drowsy nature.