World Meteorological Organization warns: El Niño is getting closer

As early as May, the Earth’s climate may be dominated by the El Niño phenomenon, which this time is expected to be exceptionally strong. Experts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warn of rising temperatures and disruptions in precipitation patterns.

The ocean is rapidly warming

According to WMO’s monthly update of the seasonal global climate outlook, clear changes are visible in the equatorial Pacific Ocean: sea surface temperatures began to rise sharply in April. Meteorologists see this as a sign of the return of El Niño, which is most likely to fully develop between May and July.

As the warm phase of the ENSO oscillation, El Niño is usually associated with higher average temperatures. This time, WMO forecasts that warming will affect nearly all land areas, which, combined with climate change, may result in particularly persistent heatwaves. The strongest impacts are expected to be felt by residents of North America, Central America, Europe, and northern Africa.

It is worth recalling that after the end of an exceptionally short and mild La Niña phase, the global climate entered a neutral ENSO phase in February 2026. Meteorologists already predicted a likely return of warm El Niño at that time, and the latest observations leave no doubt in this regard.

Heavy rains or droughts? It depends on the region

El Niño affects not only temperature levels but also precipitation patterns. In this case, however, its impact varies significantly by region. The very fact that warmer oceans and atmosphere increase the availability of energy and moisture often translates into more intense extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall and tropical storms.

What can the world expect in the coming months? WMO experts warn that southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia should expect heavier-than-usual rainfall. In the central and eastern Pacific, there may be an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones.

However, not all regions will see more rain. In Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia, meteorologists forecast prolonged periods of drought. The impact of El Niño on precipitation in Europe is more difficult to predict, but some sources suggest that we should prepare for intense summer storms.

Super El Niño means more extreme weather

Historical observations show that El Niño typically occurs every 2–7 years and lasts around 9–12 months. This year’s shift in the ENSO oscillation is described as exceptionally strong, and as a result, there is increasing talk of the onset of a so-called super El Niño. The term has not yet been adopted by WMO, but the U.S. Climate Prediction Center suggests that between October and December 2026, sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific may be 1.5°C above the long-term average with a 30 percent probability.

The result may be a sharp increase in extreme weather events worldwide. According to American scientists, the super El Niño of 2015 caused, among other things, severe drought in Ethiopia, water shortages in Puerto Rico, and record-intensity hurricanes in the central-north Pacific. Analysts from the Carbon Brief portal suggest that if the forecasts come true, 2027 will be a record-breaking hot year.

At the end of May, WMO will publish another update on the climate situation, intended to help governments, organizations, and industry representatives take preparatory actions. Earlier, on April 29 this year, a report based on current observations will be presented as part of the WMO Coordination Mechanism, addressing the main concerns related to the ENSO oscillation.