World Meteorological Organization publishes climate forecast for 2025–2029

As it does every year, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released an updated version of its global climate forecast for the next five years. According to the report, the world can expect further heat records, while precipitation patterns will be highly variable – surprising in some regions.

We will exceed the 1.5°C threshold

Globally, the latest WMO forecast will come as no surprise: average temperatures between 2025 and 2029 are expected to continue rising. There is an 80 percent probability that at least one year will break the heat records set in 2024, which is officially recognized as the hottest year in history.

The World Meteorological Organization also predicts that at least one year will be more than 1.5°C warmer than the pre-industrial era. Moreover, there is a 70 percent chance that the symbolic global warming threshold will be exceeded by the average temperature of the next five-year period. For the first time, there is a 1 percent chance that the global average annual temperature will rise by more than 2°C compared to the pre-industrial period.

The WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029) projects that global temperatures are expected to continue at or near record levels in the next five years.

Check out the full update: https://t.co/a6LnmPmHZX pic.twitter.com/KOIborTWOM

— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) May 28, 2025

Regional weather anomalies

The year 2025 began with a weak influence of the La Niña phenomenon in the eastern Pacific. According to WMO experts, this influence will fade, and there is no indication that El Niño or La Niña will dominate in the coming five years. However, this year is expected to see a persistent low-pressure system over Antarctica alongside an unusual high-pressure system over the South Pacific.

Between 2025 and 2029, an above-average warm Atlantic is expected to bring unusually high rainfall to Africa’s Sahel region. Similar trends are forecasted for Northern Europe, Alaska, and Australia. On the other hand, exceptional droughts are expected in the Amazon region. The entire subtropical zone of the Southern Hemisphere will also see less precipitation.

Almost everywhere in the world, temperatures will exceed long-term averages, with the most noticeable increases occurring in the Arctic region above latitude 60°N. The forecasted anomaly here is as high as 2.4°C above the 1991–2020 average –3.5 times higher than the global average anomaly. Additionally, the World Meteorological Organization estimates that sea ice in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk Seas will significantly decline over the next five years. A similar trend is expected for sea ice around Antarctica.

The World Meteorological Organization is rarely wrong

The current climate forecast also provides an opportunity to verify previous estimates. What has been revealed? The predicted increase in near-surface average temperatures for 2024 was accurate for most regions. However, WMO underestimated the thermal anomalies, which turned out to be significantly higher in the North Atlantic, Eastern Europe, and parts of Africa. On the other hand, changes in pressure patterns and precipitation anomalies – including extremely heavy rainfall over Central Europe – were accurately forecasted.

WMO forecasts for the 2020–2024 period also proved highly accurate, indicating the strong effectiveness of advanced meteorological models. According to its authors, the current forecast for 2025–2029 is intended to guide Regional Climate Centres as well as national hydrological and meteorological services.
At the same time, the World Meteorological Organization notes that unpredictable phenomena – such as volcanic eruptions – could significantly affect the climate situation. Still, there is little doubt that the next five years will be marked by warm winters and scorching summer months.