Kamala Harris in the White House: How Will She Influence Climate Policy?

Just over two months separate us from the U.S. presidential election—arguably the most closely watched race for head of state in the world. Following Joe Biden’s withdrawal, Kamala Harris, the current Vice President of the United States, has stepped in as the Democratic candidate to face Donald Trump. According to polls from August 25th, Harris had a 3% lead over Trump. What awaits the world after her possible victory? In which direction might U.S. climate policy shift?

Kamala Harris – The Candidate’s Climate Profile

During her Senate career, Kamala Harris made a name for herself as one of the early advocates of the Green New Deal, which aims to reduce carbon emissions by basing the American economy 100% on renewable energy sources. In 2022, her vote tipped the balance in favor of passing the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the largest climate investment in U.S. history. As Vice President, Harris has also clearly opposed hydraulic fracturing, which is used in the extraction of oil and natural gas.

In a 2019 speech in Portsmouth, which faces the threat of flooding, Harris stated, “Climate change is a fact and poses an existential threat to us as a community (…). I care about this issue not because I have a particular urge to hug a tree, but because I want to have a healthy child.”

How Might New U.S. Climate Policy Impact the World?

Let’s remember that while the United States signed the Paris Agreement in 2016, Donald Trump withdrew from it just a year later. Joe Biden re-signed the agreement in 2021, and Kamala Harris is expected to continue her predecessor’s efforts to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. As part of their political platform, the Democrats also pledge, among other things, further investments in solar and wind power plants, achieving zero emissions in agriculture by 2050, electrifying the transportation sector, and increasing funding for research into clean energy innovations.

Speaking at the 2023 climate summit in Dubai, Harris emphasized that the climate crisis requires global cooperation, mentioning U.S. engagement in the Caribbean and Zambia. She also declared the creation of a new partnership to build supply chains based on clean energy worldwide, along with financial support of $3 billion.

In this year’s analysis of American security and energy transition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlighted the United States’ role as a global leader in green technologies in this area. However, the U.S. remains the world’s largest producer of oil and gas. According to the IEA, growing exports in these sectors in the coming years will help stabilize the crisis related to the war in Ukraine.

According to forecasts published by the independent organization The Brookings Institution, the scenario in which Kamala Harris becomes president will undoubtedly be less disruptive to global climate policy than Trump’s victory. However, analysts note that the new government will face enormous financial challenges that may be difficult to bear, especially considering the U.S.’s reluctance to cooperate within international organizations that take a formalistic approach to actions.

Although dialogue between the European Union and the United States on the climate crisis and environmental degradation has begun, a great deal of goodwill on both sides will be needed to overcome significant political and organizational barriers.

On November 11th, just a week after the U.S. presidential election, the next climate summit, COP 29, will begin in Baku. Brookings experts expect that during the talks, conflicts over financing climate adaptation in the world’s poorest countries will come to the fore. According to them, it will be more important not who resides in the White House, but how much money they are willing to pledge.

Will Kamala Harris Rise to the Challenge?

According to observers of the American political scene cited by Inside Climate News, Harris will most likely follow Biden’s path, setting ambitious goals for reducing pollution that contributes to climate change. However, she is expected to favor the use of incentives rather than punishment.

Meanwhile, despite enormous expectations, Kamala Harris has refrained from making specific promises on climate policy in her recent public speeches. During a Democratic rally on August 23rd this year, she made only a brief reference to the right to breathe fresh air, drink clean water, and live away from the pollution that drives climate change. Some dissatisfied activists are calling on the Democratic candidate to make more concrete declarations. The coming weeks will show what position Harris will take on this issue.