What does Donald Trump’s victory mean for climate and the environment?

Vote counting in the U.S. presidential election has not yet concluded, but alarming opinions about the future have already surfaced in global media. The fight against climate change took a colossal hit with Donald Trump’s win, writes The New York Times. Analysts are scrutinizing the pre-election promises of the 47th president of the United States, drawing bleak scenarios for our planet. Is there really cause for concern?

Return to fossil fuels?

Already during Wednesday’s election rally, while celebrating his victory, Donald Trump reminded everyone how he plans to make America great again. The United States has more “liquid gold” than any other country in the world. More than Saudi Arabia. We have more than Russia, he said, referring to plans to increase oil extraction and usage to enable a reduction in energy prices and taxes in the U.S. A Carbon Brief report forecasts that the president-elect’s actions could increase U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 4 billion tons of CO2 equivalent by 2030—equal to the combined annual emissions of the EU and Japan.

A lack of interest in emissions reduction policies should not be surprising. During his first term, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, claiming it placed an unfair burden on American workers and companies. Biden’s administration ratified the treaty again, but Donald Trump has already announced that he would withdraw from it a second time. The incoming president is even more fiercely critical of the Inflation Reduction Act, which was the Democrats’ most significant achievement in funding green energy.

Dangerous theories

Attempting to stimulate the U.S. economy through increased oil extraction is not an isolated controversy. During his first presidency, Donald Trump called climate change a massive hoax invented by China, while also accusing wind turbines of causing cancer. He also stated that the Green New Deal policy would cost the U.S. $100 billion, a figure with no basis in actual commitments.

In April of this year, trivializing climate change, Trump referenced rising sea levels, saying it’s not a serious threat and citing entirely false numbers. He added that the phenomenon is beneficial because more properties would gain access to the sea, thus increasing their value. Regarding electric vehicles, the new president said they wouldn’t get far and announced that benefits for EVs would end.

Donald Trump vs. the environment

During his first term, Donald Trump managed to repeal or amend nearly 100 environmentally significant regulations, 28 of which were related to air quality and greenhouse gas emissions. His administration also reduced the scope of environmental protections to increase leasing licenses for natural gas and oil extraction. Representatives of the fossil fuel extraction industry were some of Trump’s most generous campaign sponsors and will likely want more.

Should we then expect an ecological disaster following Donald Trump’s triumph? Dan Lashof, Director of the World Resources Institute, points out that the transition toward green energy and combating climate change has already begun and enjoys Congressional support, as it creates new jobs and generates enormous profits. It won’t be so easy to stop.

The New York Times also highlights that in many states, voters supported climate and environmental initiatives, and changes are already actively being implemented. The burden of achieving ambitious sustainable development goals will now shift to individual states, where the will of the new administration isn’t as influential. The BBC reminds us, however, that on November 11, the COP29 climate summit begins in Azerbaijan, with representatives from Biden’s administration attending. The British outlet quotes Professor Richard Klein from the Stockholm Environment Institute, who predicts that the U.S. will be unable to make any commitments, leading China to evade them as well. Global climate initiatives could thus find themselves at an impasse.