Trends and forecasts in Europe 2024 – EEA report

Climate change affects our lives and environment in many ways. Extreme heat or changing patterns of precipitation occurring (e.g., sudden, heavy rains) are altering the environment, people’s food and water security, energy supply, financial stability or health.

To take a closer look at these phenomena, in November 2024. The European Environment Agency has prepared and published a report titled: Trends and projections in Europe 2024 (Trends and projections in Europe 2024).

The report traces historical trends, recent progress and projections in mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the benefits of renewable energy production and improving energy efficiency.

The report can be downloaded from the website of the Publications Office of the European Union.

General context

Climate change is affecting the planet in many ways. Extreme heat or hard-to-define precipitation patterns are shaping the physical environment, as well as people’s food and water security, health, energy supply or financial stability.

Over the past year, global temperatures have exceeded the threshold for increase set at 1.5°C (Copernicus Climate Change Service), approaching the level of the long-term goal set by the Paris Agreement. This makes it clear that in addition to the need for rapid adaptation to a changing climate, the accelerating pace of climate change is forcing the need for further action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

As the consequences of climate change are increasingly felt not only by people, but also by economies or the environment, in March 2024. The European Environment Agency published the first European climate risk assessment, indicating that risks have already reached a critical level and could become catastrophic if urgent and decisive action is not taken.

Shortly after the assessment was published, the European Commission (EC) adopted the Communication Managing Climate Risks – Protecting Citizens and Prosperity – COM(2024) 91 final. The communication indicates how the European Union (EU) can effectively address the risks and build greater resilience to climate change. As Europe is the fastest warming continent in the world, posing significant climate risks, knowledge of trends and projections is essential to prepare the public and increase resilience.

Publication Trends and forecasts in Europe 2024

Published in November 2024, the report is based on data reported by all 27 EU countries, five member states of the European Environment Agency (EEA) and nine parties to the energy community.

The document provides an overview of progress toward the climate goal, with a particular focus on progress toward the EU’s intermediate goals – for 2030 – on climate and energy. It includes analyses of trends and forecasts in the following areas:

• Greenhouse gas emissions and energy trends in the EU
• Greenhouse gas emissions and energy trends at the sector level
• Greenhouse gas emissions and energy trends in European countries
• Conclusions and next steps.

As the report points out, focusing on sectoral development in 2023, the energy supply sector has made a significant contribution to reducing emissions. At the same time, it should be pointed out that historically it has been the largest source of emissions in the EU, and yet – thanks to the measures it has taken – it has shed this status, reducing its emissions by a significant 19 percent in 1 year. This was mainly due to the growth of nuclear power, hydropower and the development of solar and wind energy.

Hydropower and nuclear energy production increased slightly in 2023 after declines in 2022. In addition, the report indicates that taking into account non-energy emissions, the agricultural sector reduced its emissions by 2 percent in 2023, while preliminary estimates for LULUCF show an increase in greenhouse gas removals.

Changes in energy consumption patterns have also reduced emissions in the industrial and construction sectors. In 2023. estimated consumption and emissions in buildings have decreased compared to the previous year, resulting in a 6 percent decrease in gas releases. Emission reductions from transportation remain at a much lower level. Given recent trends, and according to the report’s authors, additional efforts and actions will be required to meet LULUCF targets.

Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions

As a result of the observed climate change, in addition to the need for rapid adaptation, the accelerating pace of climate change underscores the need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

In recent years, EU countries have jointly pledged to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 at the latest, and to aim for negative emissions within that period.

In 2023. the EU’s total net greenhouse gas emissions have fallen to 37 percent below 1990 levels. This estimate is based on Member State reporting and implementation of EU climate targets as defined in European climate law, including net removals from the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector, as well as emissions from international aviation and maritime transport regulated under EU law. The 2023 emissions reduction represents the largest year-on-year reduction in several decades (excluding data for 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19). Among other reasons, this is why the EU shows that it is possible to reduce GHG emissions by more than a third while maintaining economic growth.