How much is desertification costing us? The economic balance sheet of water shortages

The 16th summit of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), also known as COP16, was held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from December 2-13, 2024. This year’s theme was Our Land. Our Future and referred to the urgent need to accelerate measures to strengthen the world’s resilience to drought. Participants focused mainly on the economic side of the effects of desertification and the corrective actions needed.

Costs of desertification according to UN estimates

The launch of the COP16 summit in Riyadh not coincidentally coincided with the publication of the report Investing in Land’s Future: financial needs assessment for UNCCD. The document is an analysis of the financial costs of land degradation and widespread desertification worldwide. It shows that $2.6 trillion will be needed by 2030 to rehabilitate 1 billion hectares of degraded land and increase drought resilience.

The UNCDD report shows that already 40 percent of the Earth’s surface is degraded, affecting the well-being of as many as 3.2 billion people. The greatest costs are, of course, borne by those poorest – traditional communities, rural farms and small farmers. The erosion problem is compounded by intensifying droughts, which have increased in severity by 29 percent since 2000. By the middle of this century, three-quarters of humanity will be suffering from drought.

We have been fighting the problem of desertification not since today. Investments in this sphere have increased from $37 billion in 2016 to $66 billion in 2022. However, they are still too low – according to the report’s authors, the funding gap is $278 billion. annually.

Why do you need to invest more?

The global economy suffers losses of $878 billion annually as a result of desertification, land degradation and drought mitigation. These costs include, in particular, reductions in agricultural productivity and ecosystem services, climatic damage from soil carbon loss, and drought damage. Unfortunately, an additional 100 million hectares are being degraded each year, and by 2050 agricultural production losses due to climate change and deteriorating soil conditions are expected to reach 10 percent globally, and up to 50 percent in some regions.

Investing in soil remediation, meanwhile, is highly profitable. Improving the quality of agricultural land obviously means higher yields and increased global food security. It is also easier to implement sustainable strategies on better soils, as plants are in better condition and do not need constant support. Soil restoration also translates into sequestering large amounts of carbon and reducing the vulnerability of local communities to drought. In total, the restoration of 1 billion hectares of land can generate economic benefits of $1.8 trillion.

And don’t forget the more difficult to quantify benefits in the form of improved well-being of local communities, increased water retention capacity of farmland, economic growth associated with ecosystem use, or support for public health and biological diversity. According to UNCCD analysts, $1 invested in combating desertification yields $8 in social, environmental and economic gains.

Key to increasing investment in the fight against land degradation and desertification is the involvement of the private sector, which – so far – has only a 6 percent share of financing. This can be done through the development of public-private partnerships, blended financing models and green bonds, among others.

Africa in the most difficult situation

As much as 62 percent of the postulated investment should go to Africa, where $191 billion will be needed to rehabilitate 600 million hectares of degraded land. annually. The desert continent is losing an area of 100 soccer fields every minute, threatening the well-being of communities, food and water security, and public health. Well-invested funds could increase agricultural productivity in North Africa by 10 percent and sub-Saharan Africa by 5 percent.

The second largest candidate for massive soil remediation is Latin America with the Caribbean, where the UNCCD report says 20 percent of proposed investments should go. Here, 256 million hectares of land require urgent restoration.

Desertification in Europe – where is it worst?

Land degradation associated with climate change and predatory human activity is unfortunately making itself felt on our continent as well. A report on the state of soils in the EU, published in November this year by the European Academies Scientific Advisory Council (EASAC), states that as much as 24 percent of European land is affected by water erosion. By 2050. The ratio could increase by 13-25 percent.

On 74 percent of agricultural soils, disturbed nutrient ratios are found – in particular, an excess of nitrogen and a decrease in organic carbon. In 2018. 13 of the 28 EU member states have declared a serious risk of desertification. The situation is particularly dire in Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Cyprus and Malta.

The Soil Atlas 2024 report, prepared by the German Think Tank Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung, shows that the main problem is intensive agricultural processes that lead to soil erosion, salinization and compression. Add to this the overexploitation of water resources, the depletion of groundwater and the deterioration of water quality due to fertilizer abuse, and desertification becomes an increasing threat. The final nail in the coffin turns out to be heat waves, fires and prolonged droughts.

A more detailed study by Romanian scientists on soil degradation in Europe indicates the most dangerous processes: desiccation (Spain, Romania), pesticide pollution (Poland, Italy, Spain) and heavy metals (France, Italy, Greece). Up to 60-70 percent of European soils were found to be unhealthy.

In Europe combined, water, wind and crop erosion is displacing some 575 million tons of soil per year. The process is particularly fast in Turkey (five times faster than the global average), where nearly 13 percent of all land is already severely degraded.

COP 16 – how to fight desertification?

The Riyadh summit talked about ways to counter desertification and soil degradation around the world. The role of traditional communities, recognized as guardians of green areas, was considered crucial in this process. Their knowledge of how to protect grasslands or coral reefs cannot be overestimated, according to COP16 participants, so it was advocated that indigenous communities should have a seat at the negotiating table.

At the initiative of Saudi Arabia, which is particularly affected by the problem of desertification, an agenda has been set up to mobilize the financial resources necessary to achieve the ambitious goal of reclaiming 1.5 billion hectares by 2030. These are to come in particular from state budgets, financial institutions, international organizations, but also the private sector.

Halting desertification and rehabilitating already degraded areas holds great potential for climate action and biodiversity restoration. As UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw said at the opening ceremony of COP 16: How we manage land today will determine the future of life on Earth.