Record heat is coming, what does it mean for Poland?

Those who plan to vacation in Italy or Spain this year should prepare for tropical temperatures. According to the latest forecast by IMGW-PIB, the mercury pole will break new records in Poland as well – it is quite possible that we are in for the hottest summer on record. The news may please beach lovers, but for many people it poses a serious threat. The environment, including aquatic ecosystems, may also suffer.

The world is getting hotter and hotter

May 14 this year. The journal Nature published an alarming study by an international team of scientists from Germany, the Czech Republic and the UK. It shows that 2023 was the warmest year in 2,000 years. years, and the average temperature in the Northern Hemisphere has already increased by 2.07°C compared to the pre-industrial period. Analogous estimates for the southern hemisphere are hampered by a lack of detailed historical data.

In 2023. Meteorologists have recorded not only the hottest summer of the last two millennia, but also autumn heat records. According to the US National Center for Environmental Information (NCIE), this year’s April was the eleventh consecutive warmest month on the planet. At 14.7 percent. The land surface recorded unprecedented spring temperatures.

In Europe, last year’s hottest summer translated into an average temperature of 19.63 degrees Celsius – that’s as much as 0.83 degrees Celsius higher than the June-August average. In some western European countries and Turkey, the heat has been associated with above-average rainfall, leading to local flooding. In contrast, the central part of the continent and Scandinavia have experienced oppressive drought.

Worrying forecasts for summer 2024

Unfortunately, the global warming trend does not seem to be slowing down, even though the impact of El Niño is already waning. Meteorological agencies around the world are issuing warnings of more summer heat waves. In North America, temperatures are forecast to be higher than the minimum average by the end of June – even Alaska will be affected. As many as 133 million people are in the flood risk zone, resulting from the rapid melting of this year’s record snowpack.

Europe is also forecast to have its hottest summer in thousands of years. Although the departure of El Niño is associated with the simultaneous arrival of the cool La Niña trend, these changes are of such a huge scale that they occur very slowly. Thus, cooling will most likely be felt only at the beginning of winter, and the neutral phase of the Southern Oscillation (the so-called ENSO) will prevail during the summer. Particularly high temperatures are predicted for the southern parts of Europe – Spain, Italy and the Balkans.

IMGW-PIB predicts that summer in Poland will bring higher temperatures than usual. According to the latest forecasts, during the months of June, July and August, the average air temperature across the country is expected to be higher than the multi-year average from 1991-2020. This means that average daily temperatures in many regions will exceed 19°C. So we can expect more than 30-degree heat during the day. Recall that the temperature record in 2023. fell in August in Ostroleka – the mercury pole then reached 35.7°C. Rainfall totals, meanwhile, are expected to remain within the seasonal norm.

What effects could the hottest summer on record have?

In Europe, about 20,000 people die prematurely each year due to the heat. people. According to the World Health Organization, high temperatures cause exhaustion and heatstroke, promote the development of thrombosis and make it more difficult to control hypertension. They also exacerbate symptoms of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, as well as kidney disorders and mental illness. Children under the age of 4 and seniors over 65 are at special risk.

Heat waves also affect the physical environment in which we live. NOAA, for example, predicts that potentially the hottest summer on record will particularly affect Texas, where high temperatures will be accompanied by sparse rainfall. The Midwestern part of the United States is therefore threatened by severe drought and devastating wildfires.

Paradoxically, the most troublesome for the Earth are high temperatures at night. We are particularly keen to use air conditioning at that time, which is responsible for nearly 4 percent. global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, the vicious circle of anthropogenic influence on the global climate is tightening. The hope remains that La Niña will finally give us a breather in 2025. and will help reduce the continued warming of the atmosphere.

Photo. main: Chris Ried