Should you shoe up your shoes already? – or about the proverbs of the cold half of the year and their verifiability

Basing predictions for the coming winter on folk knowledge passed down in proverbs for centuries, one could breathe a sigh of relief and conclude that snow will not lie all winter. Such conclusions were drawn after observing the weather on St. Martin’s Day (November 11), because when [wtedy] the snow arrived, it would lie across the belt all winter. The current cold and cloudy weather, but without snowfall, gives grounds for the forecast that we are not in danger of being stuck in snowdrifts. But won’t it turn out to be “dull”? Holding frost? That’s what you could find out by cutting an oak branch on All Saints’ Day – if the sap is gone, the winter will be dull. Who among our readers has made such observations? Will they prove true? We will find out only in the spring.

Passionate meteorologists and scientists have studied the verifiability of weather proverbs more than once. Among autumn and winter, one can find both those that “forecast” quite accurately, but also those that do not work at all. So what is it really like? When is the best time to observe the weather in order to predict its change well? Will long-term predictions work better, or “forecasts” for a few days ahead?

What is the weather for the coming days hidden in the proverbs?

The well-known proverb to all: February is coming, shoe up heralds the cold weather and reminds us to prepare proper, warm (shoe-shined) footwear. There is much truth in it. Historically, it is in February that sulfurous frosts are most common. This is associated with the strengthening of the East Asian high. Following its edge, masses of polar continental air then flow over Poland. It contains little moisture, so it provides sunny weather, but brings with it very low temperatures, often exceeding -20 C.

Such frosts used to be able to last for several days just in February, but now, due to climate change, they are becoming less frequent. Winters are becoming milder, and the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean do not allow the Icelandic Low to weaken, which in winter directs warm and humid air over our country, bringing weather that is quite warm, cloudy and even rainy.

Another well-known winter proverb, whose predictive capabilities will soon be tested, is the prediction of Christmas weather based on that on St. Barbara’s Day (December 4). Interestingly, the proverb: when St. Barbara’s Day is on the water, Christmas is on the ice carries a forecast whose accuracy based on 60-year observation sequences was determined to be 53 percent (Stopa-Boryczka et al., 2011). For a 20-day forecast, this is an impressive result. The predictive value of a proverb constructed in reverse(Barbara on ice, Christmas on water) was already estimated at only 17 percent.

One of the characteristic features of Poland’s climate is the winter increase in the proportion of winds with higher speeds. Confirmation of this is found in proverbs about December, as when it thundered in December, the winds would be not few and specifically on Thomas (December 21) weather, winter strong winds will give.

The first predictions of the arrival of spring can be looked for as early as February [gdy] a stormy aura – spring is imminent. In addition, also a harbinger of warmer days can be Maciej (February 24) – when it is warm, it is already spring hopeful. This proverb in scientific research has shown a fairly high verifiability. However, still, as folk predictions convey, one should be on guard, because in opposition to the proverbs ending winter are Zbigniew and Patrick (March 17), who , when they frost their ears, winter still two Sundays with frost and snow. Moreover, they are characterized by greater verifiability than the previous ones.

Proverbs as long-term weather forecasts

A large group of proverbs have the character of long-term forecasts. As early as November observations of trees can bring information about the coming spring. According to folk wisdom, when the leaf on the tops of the trees holds, winter will still fall on the new leaves in May. And on the Frosty Gody (December 25) we will find out when spring will arrive and whether it will bring floods or just melt. For when the Frosty Gody- early waters, and as the frosty – late muds.

In particular, many proverbs predict the weather for July based on that seen in January. We can learn that when January freezes, July fizzles , and as January splashed, July wept, and when in January summer, in summer winter for it. Researchers have analyzed this group of proverbs and proved that their verifiability is very high. A sultry July after a cold January was observed in 40 percent of cases (Matczak et al. 2020). The same research, after analyzing precipitation considered splashy and weepy, showed that the testability of the relationship observed in the proverb was 47 percent. When the research adopted the criterion of the subjective feeling of the average person, the testability rose to an impressive 57 percent.

In winter, farmers should often look to the sky to predict whether there will be a summer harvest. Already in November, we find a lot of summer forecasts. Because when it thunders in November, the farmer sleeps well, and this is confirmed by another saying that the thunder of November predicts a lot of grain. Unfortunately, it is difficult to assess their verifiability. Instead, the December wisdom turns out to be true, saying that a cold and snow-covered December yields a year rich in grain. This is because such conditions are optimal for the protection and subsequent growth of plants, and thus result in high yields.

Snow forms a thermal cushion and gives protection from low temperatures and wind, and provides adequate hydration of the soil, protecting it from drought. The next harbingers of fertility can be looked out for in January – if it is the sharpest, then the year is the most fertile. This, in turn, can be associated with the beneficial effect of frosts on reducing pest populations and lower risk of plant diseases. The last forecast for farmers is carried by Joseph (March 19), because when the weather on Joseph – there will be beauty in the fields.

Proverbs for all weathers

To be sure about the forecasted weather, it is worth reaching for a group of proverbs that give a wide range of possibilities. As early as February, we learn that St. Matthias (February 24) loses winter or makes it rich. March, on the other hand, in addition to the all-too-familiar pot into which we can throw any weather, carries us information that whether sunny or weeping – November pictures vividly.

So how is it? Low verifiability or a changing climate?

On the one hand, some of the proverbs show surprisingly high verifiability, on the other hand, there are those that are vague and difficult to evaluate. It is worth remembering that the sayings were created many years ago, and although they were created on the basis of years of weather observations, they are certainly not a reliable forecasting source today. This is influenced not only by their unprofessional approach to forecasting presumably based only on observations, but also by other factors. It is worth remembering that they were created in the territories of former Poland, whose borders were later shifted more to the east. Thus, the proverbs may have referred to a more continental climate.

Confirmation of this can be found in scientific studies, in which synoptic stations located in the east – in Ukraine or Lithuania – have a higher level of verifiability. They can also refer to large areas, which makes accurate forecasting difficult. In addition, the fact of a changing climate will adversely affect the verifiability of proverbs. However, they are folk wisdom, passed down, probably less and less often, in the conversations and stories of our grandparents and parents. So perhaps it is worthwhile, despite their little predictive value, to listen to this piece of Polish culture, cherish it and pass it on.

zdj. główne: Ian Schneider / Unsplash

In the article, I used, among others. From the works:

1. Biniak-Pieróg M. et al. (2011), Evaluation of the verifiability of weather forecasts contained in folk proverbs on the example of Wroclaw, University of Life Sciences in Wroclaw
2. Dygacz A. (2000) The Four Seasons in Proverbs, Professor Adolf Dygacz Foundation
3. Matczak P. et al.(2020) Temperature Forecast Accuracies of Polish Proverbs, Weather, Climate, and Society, https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wcas/12/3/wcasD190086.xml
4. Foot-Boryczka , M. , J. Boryczka , U. Kossowska-Cezak and J. Wawer ,2011:Heat and cold waves in annual air temperatures in Warsaw (1951-2010).Miscellaneous Geography,15,103-114,https://doi.org/10.2478/V10288-012-0006-5.
5. Swirko S. (1990), The Year Pays, the Year Loses: A Calendar of Agricultural Proverbs and Prognostics. Poznan Publishing House
6. http://www.aktywnawies.pl/ludowe-prognozy-pogody,n47,l1.html (Accessed 11.11.2024)
7. https://edunews.pl/edukacja-na-co-dzien/edukacja-przez-zycie/6540-czy-przyslowia-pogodowe-nadal-sie-sprawdzaja (Accessed 11.11.2024)
8. https://obserwatoriumjezykowe.uw.edu.pl/felietony/jakie-czasy-takie-przyslowia/ (Accessed 11.11.2024)
9. https://uniwersyteckie.pl/nauka/czy-przyslowia-pogodowe-sie-sprawdzaja (Accessed 11.11.2024)