Polski
The average media consumer notices that articles or news stories about climate damage are appearing with increasing frequency. In the statements, often through tears, the phrase is repeated: even the oldest residents do not remember such a flood(drought, hail – depending on the circumstances), the heat record fell again. Destroyed infrastructure, homes, often razed to the ground the achievements of several generations. Reaction: the problem does not affect me, I change the TV program and the world is ok again. It’s somewhere far away, in the world, in Europe, somewhere in Poland, but not at my place.
Media climate in the context of the Green Deal
On the other hand, opinions are multiplying that the observed climate phenomena are nothing new, surprising, and that their connection with human activity is a manipulation by the EU and other eco-terrorists. The pressure of such opinions (because not arguments) and violent street protests is succumbing to politics, failing to meet the goals of slowing climate change and achieving the goal of climate neutrality. The Green Deal is taking away our freedom, deindustrializing the economy, ruining agriculture, the protesters in the streets shout.
Agricultural digression – facts and emotions
In the atmosphere of tensions and street aggression, the fundamental issue – the purpose of the Green Deal – escapes somewhere. Well, it is to ensure sustainable access to food for all the Earth’s inhabitants. The uncontrolled, and currently observed, increase in temperature caused by human activity and the accompanying extreme meteorological phenomena do not prospectively guarantee food production at a level to feed the world’s population. One may be puzzled, then, by the scale of the farmers’ protests, since they are, so to speak, on the front line of the climate front.
Countries in the European Union’s Green Deal strategy in the area of agriculture have set the following goals, among others:
- Reduce intensive fertilization by 20 percent. By 2030;
- A 50 percent reduction in pesticide use. By 2030;
- Biodiversity conservation efforts;
- adaptation of cultivated plants to high temperatures, periods of drought and crop pests and diseases hitherto uncommon in the European climate;
- Restoration of natural natural resources (wetlands, peatlands) to reduceCO2 in the atmosphere.
It is already clear that this schedule will not be met. Emotions prevail, this battle is lost for now. Let’s hope only temporarily.
Water matters
This article focuses on the water aspect of climate change. This is only a slice of a larger whole. So it won’t be about melting glaciers, climate migration,invasive species of flora and fauna, new diseases or threats to democratic social systems. These are topics for separate consideration, but primarily challenges in education and social communication.
Back to school physics and chemistry – facts and a brief commentary on them
It is helpful in discussing climate change to return to the school or college bench to refresh elementary knowledge of physics and chemistry. So, as a reminder:
- Earth’s atmosphere absorbs thermal radiation emitted from the surface of the earth (Stefan Bolzmann’s law – infrared), warming up, carbon dioxide contributes significantly to this process;
- introduced into the atmosphere, carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for at least several hundred years, and does not decompose or radiate (except for that assimilated through photosynthesis);
- Human activities (population growth + industrialization + fossil fuels) are causing a steady increase in the concentration ofCO2 in the atmosphere;
- The absolute humidity of the air (the water content in it) increases by 7 percent. with a temperature increase of 1°C (Clausius-Clapeyron law);
- An increase in atmosphericCO2 concentration causes an increase in the temperature of the Earth’s surface [1];
- The average temperature of the earth’s surface and theCO2 content of the atmosphere with respect to the time before the industrial revolution of the 19th century. is steadily increasing [2].
(source: Wikipedia)
Let’s leave the prediction of accelerating temperature rise and pushing back climate neutrality in the context of the Green Deal slowdown to climatologists, but also to the careful observation of insurance companies.
Sorry, this is the climate we are creating – extreme phenomena and their effects
It is known that the long-term plan to limit the increase in the earth’s surface temperature by 1.5°C andCO2 concentration to 500 ppm (parts per million) is no longer feasible for the reasons described above. The current forecast, depending on the source, is at least a 2°C rise. At what time? This mainly depends on the rate of increase inCO2 emissions.
The correlation betweenCO2 emissions and rising temperatures is indisputable and was described as early as the late 19th century. [1]. Currently, using modern methods and on the basis of numerous measurements, it is estimated that a doubling ofCO2 concentration in the atmosphere results in an increase in average temperature of about 1.5°C.
Keep in mind that with a 1°C increase in temperature, the amount of water in the atmosphere increases by 7 percent. What does it mean locally? The following chain of cause-and-effect relationships is formed (in a nutshell):
- Solar energy reaches, for example, the surfaces of streets and roofs, heating them;
- These surfaces give off heat to the atmosphere (infrared);
- CO2 and other components of the atmosphere accumulate radiated heat energy, raising the air temperature;
- The heated air “sucks” moisture from green and agricultural areas;
- The accumulated water vapor in the atmosphere condenses and returns to the ground, including in the form of driving rain or hail;
- storms accompanying heavy rainfall destroy old-growth forest with high photosynthetic potential.
An already observed effect of climate change is and will be the increased recurrence of phenomena hitherto considered rare or extremely rare. Rainfall of short duration, but very intense, prolonged periods of drought, hailstorms or thunderstorms will constantly accompany us. It is important to react to this fact today and prepare for their intensification in the near future. Sorry, that’s the climate we’ve made.
Micro-scale prevention
Can we prevent extreme weather events on a micro scale, and how? Global phenomena will not be stopped, unfortunately. An area of action at the scale of a city or small urban area is possible, but limited. Efforts should be made to break the causal chain described above: rising temperatures => local extremes.
On the issue side, there are some opportunities and they should be used. Smart urban planning and ecologically oriented municipal policies are key in this case. Here are some of the many possible examples:
- ReduceCO2 emissions by favoring low-emission, electric or hybrid vehicles, such as through dedicated parking zones or lower fees. Expansion of public transportation + ticketed entry into the city or a separate zone;
- ReducingCO2 emissions from buildings – modern insulation and heating systems, abandoning fossil fuels;
- Reducing heat emissions into the atmosphere from streets, squares and roofs (green roofs);
- Increase photosynthetic potential – tree planting, protection of parks and urban stands, reactivation of wetlands.
Reducing losses – the water aspect
Observing the current pace of preventive measures and the unbridled rise in temperature, the focus should be on minimizing losses, which are, unfortunately, unavoidable. It should be accepted that there are many problems that we are unable to cope with, such as the effects of drought are reduced yields or their total loss, and often permanent deterioration of farmland. The recovery of groundwater resources will slow down, and their quality, due to intensive fertilization and excessive use of pesticides, is at risk. These problems must be confronted, and as soon as possible.
A slightly easier task is to reduce losses from flooding. In the case of flood risk, Flood Hazard and Flood Risk Maps are generally available [3]. Cities and municipalities, taking into account the data contained therein, plan their development by excluding at-risk areas from development. Owners of existing properties should, based on the readout of the Hazard Maps, take appropriate technical measures to protect life and property. Insurers are vigilant about this, not signing contracts for facilities in such areas or requiring appropriate safeguards.
The same is true for urban flooding in areas far from rivers, but the difference is that simulations of inundation due to drainage system inefficiencies (beyond the limit defined by the water service agreement) are still rare. Superimposition of terrain topographic data and water layer for precipitation with probabilities of 100 or more years are possible and necessary from the point of view of protecting life and property. Further treatment – as in the case of river floods.
Conclusion – emergency management plans and land use plans must already be adapted to the new climate situation!
Children in decline: plus 3°C and tough questions
The frequency and intensity of the climatic events described above, the volume of losses and compensation paid, and the unquantifiable human dramas will not be halted. Unfortunately, there is no room for socio-political compromise or negotiation with the climate here. You can’t spell reality, just as you can’t vote out the existence of gravity. It must be accepted that a slowdown in the rate of warming to 1.5°C can no longer be counted on, as we have practically reached this state today. In addition, the temperature of the dispute conquered by the smoke of burning tires and blockades is not conducive to the necessary solutions.
One of the consequences of the battle for climate neutrality is, not only in the water aspect, limited to minimizing losses. Permanent disruption of the climate balance is taking place before our eyes and does not appear to be a reversible process. A victory over the Green Deal is unlikely to go well for our children, but for our grandchildren? What will we leave behind for them? Plus 3°C and a few uncomfortable questions for our generation?
Photo. main: Claudio Schwarz/Unsplash
In the article, I used, among other things. From the works:
[1] Arrhenius S. (1896) “On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground”. Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science 41: 237-276.
[2] https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalne_ocieplenie
[3] https://isok.gov.pl/hydroportal.html
