Flood 2024. Impact analysis and future strategy

The flood has been on the lips of many for several days, unfortunately mostly those who have never experienced it. Those affected by the disaster do not appear in the media – they focus on saving their lives and property, focus on the current situation, but also on the future. The support carried by people of goodwill, NGOs, local governments and the government is badly needed now. However, the question arises: is rebuilding homes in flooded areas the way of the future? Is investing millions of zlotys in restoring pre-disaster conditions the right direction? This article was written for those who experienced the elements, but also for decision-makers, as a reminder that populism in solutions often does not yield the best results.

In recent days, the media has been constantly attempting to account for and assign responsibility for the floods. There are demands to divide the periods of government on the basis of the number of dam reservoirs built by successive political parties. In response, I would like to recall the words of one of the professors well-known in our industry – the largest number of water reservoirs in Poland was built during the reign of Edward Gierek. This is an undeniable fact, which anyone can verify by analyzing the dates on which these facilities were put into operation. However, the question remains whether this is how the public debate on flood prevention should be conducted. And why don’t we hear voices that aim first and foremost for the well-being of the affected?

Flood 2024. Could every house have been saved?

The answer is NO – regardless of the number of reservoirs, hydrotechnical facilities or the height of embankments. The fact is that after the flood of ’97, a number of measures were taken at the local and governmental level, which should protect against this phenomenon, especially residents of urban areas. Dikes were repaired and raised, reservoirs were built. Millions have been spent. Flood risk management plans have been developed and updated. Maps have been created so that everyone can see where areas of special danger lie. However, the process of implementing these documents into land use plans has been, colloquially speaking, a road through an ordeal. Most local governments did not want to accept that some of the land along the rivers should be left undeveloped and postponed the moment of their implementation.

It is estimated that as a result of the precipitation that occurred between September 14 and 16 (the total in some places in the south of the country was more than 400 mm), the amount of water in some rivers rose so sharply and to a magnitude that indicates the occurrence of an extreme flow – which has not occurred before. When building dikes or bridges crossing watercourses, 100-year water is assumed for calculations. On the other hand, most dam reservoirs are predicted to take 1000-year water. And despite this, no flood control infrastructure is prepared for the kind of water that came this year.

If we wanted to capture this figuratively, we can compare the volume of a flood wave to the capacity of a reservoir. Capturing an extreme flow of thousands of^cubic meters per second through a reservoir (capacity of a dozen to tens of millions of cubic meters) or even a cascade of reservoirs in just a day or two is impossible.

Another disturbing phenomenon in mountain and foothill catchments is the clearing of forests and their species composition. Forests, managed according to the principles of proper forest management, play a key role in water retention and slowing water runoff. However, there is a growing number of voices indicating that in mountainous areas – such as the Sudetes and Beskids, where forests should naturally act as sponges to absorb water during precipitation – it is necessary to replace the dominant spruce monocultures with mixed forests. The current state of mostly monoculture forests not only does not support flood control measures, but also increases the risk of erosion and landslides.

At the scale of a catchment area – that is, the land from which water flows into a river – the most important thing is its management. It determines how fast and how much water from precipitation flows over the area. This is nothing revealing – seemingly everyone knows this, yet few take it into account.

Flood 2024. Will it teach us anything?

We hear from residents of flooded areas and NGOs that the situation in many places is dire. No electricity, water, service assistance, devastation and theft of property. I don’t know if these are incidents or a larger-scale problem. Regardless, however, and despite the enormity of the human tragedy, surely much of the drama could have been avoided – and going into a less populist thread – certainly not with the construction of dozens of reservoirs. The question must be asked – how come the city’s infrastructure – schools, hospitals, headquarters of government offices or uniformed services – despite knowing that they are located in flood-prone areas, were not prepared for flooding? Why were some people not informed of the impending danger? Were the messages formulated properly?

Would anyone stay after being informed that the water level could reach the second floor of the building where they live? I’m not counting on anyone to provide answers to these questions. The current media hype, misinformation and fear of liability won’t allow it. But – humanly speaking – I am worried about what those affected by the floods will hear when the worst is over. What clever ways will be devised and what will be promised to calm the mood. But it’s not the mood that should be concerned about, it’s ensuring safety in the future. And probably not a very distant one, unfortunately. The situation will not be solved by building a few small reservoirs – although I suppose the displacement process will now find greater public approval. Much more comprehensive action is needed.

Perhaps someone doesn’t feel like repeating the experience, perhaps there will be people who no longer want to live in floodplains and are aware that extreme events will become more frequent. So who should make it possible for them to move to another location? Who should support entrepreneurs who will want to move? Who will make the decision not to rebuild a hospital with an emergency department on the first floor?

Last year, I had a very interesting conversation with Roman Konieczny, which, one might say, unfortunately fits perfectly into the topic I am covering in this article. Powódź – czy uczymy się przez doświadczanie? The answer to this question comes from the rich experience of my interviewee. Whether it will be satisfactory to you – I do not know. But one thing I know for sure. If anyone close to me were to experience the enormity of the tragedy brought on by the 2024 flood, I would certainly do my best to make that person aware that the decision they make now could have serious implications in the future. Whatever they will offer you – if you stay in a flood-prone area – absolutely no one can guarantee you that such a situation will not happen again soon. Take care of yourselves!

pic. main: Fototeo Piotr Bieniecki