The hydrological situation in Poland in the spring. Analysis and forecasts of the threat of drought

Water – a key resource that determines life, economic development and environmental sustainability. Its availability in the face of ongoing climate change is becoming an increasing challenge – both in terms of quantity and quality. Poland, only seemingly abundant in water, has been struggling in recent years with increasingly frequent and intense drought phenomena. Let’s find out what the hydrological situation looks like after a noticeably more abundant rainfall in May, and whether we no longer need to fear a water deficit as a result.

Analyses of the results made available by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), the Institute of Cultivation and Soil Sciences (IUNG-PIB) and from other sources that monitor the state of water resources make it possible to track the current situation in Poland, as well as to select the regions most at risk of drought in the coming months. In view of the growing risk, it becomes necessary not only to monitor the situation on an ongoing basis, but also to plan preventive measures.

Does precipitation always counteract drought?

In May 2025, the precipitation situation in Poland was quite diverse. According to IMGW forecasts, monthly precipitation over most of the country was expected to be within the range of the 1991-2020 multi-year norm, only in the northwest and west of the country lower values were forecast.

Recorded in mid-May, several days of rainfall (and snow in the mountains) of variable intensity, locally with thunderstorms and daily temperatures of 10-15°C were the result of a low-pressure system, with the influx of a moist and cool air mass from northern Europe. Despite such conditions, the amount of precipitation in some regions was insufficient. According to IMGW’s hydrological service, just a few days after a nearly week-long period of rainfall of variable intensity, one-third of the measured river sections in Poland had water levels below normal (marked in black).

On the same day, the meteo service published another warning about thunderstorms expected in the central part of the country, which were expected to result in hydrological warnings: a sharp rise in river levels for several hours (area marked in yellow), with a hydrological drought warning in effect for several catchments (areas marked in gray).

The mere fact of precipitation does not eliminate the risk of drought, especially for areas at risk of soil drought. Here I refer to data published by the IUNG service, which, based on soil moisture analysis, determines areas of agricultural drought risk for specific regions and crops.

A drought-affected area will not be replenished by a one-time, let alone a sudden rainfall that quickly turns into an outflow and only temporarily, locally increases water levels in rivers.

And what’s next for the drought in Poland?

In order to effectively dismiss the vision of drought, there is a need for prolonged and steady precipitation, staggered over time, but on a year-round basis. The situation is all the more difficult because in recent years in Poland winters have been mild, without frost and heavy snowfall, the slow thawing of which (under conditions normal for our climate zone) has fed groundwater and which has been crucial to the state of water resources in the subsequent warmer months.

The lack of snow causes springtime lows in river levels and prolonged drought, which negatively affects the functioning of nature and agriculture.

This was also the case in late 2024 and early 2025, and in confirmation I would like to remind you of the IMGW’s announcement in late February about the ongoing hydrological drought and the worst situation for the corresponding season in the last 10 years of the number of gauging stations with water flow below the mean low flow (SNQ) value for a given river.

A slightly cooler and wetter May has improved the hydrological situation locally and slightly. However, weather forecasts for the coming warmer and periodically hotter months predict only slight precipitation, which may aggravate the problem of hydrological drought, especially in areas extremely vulnerable to water shortages. These include parts of Western Pomerania, Lubusz Land and Kuyavia – areas with a high proportion of crops requiring adequate irrigation, Greater Poland, characterized by low precipitation, and the Mazurian Lake District, a region where water levels in lakes and rivers are observed to be falling.

Actions and recommendations

The observed drought phenomena in Poland are part of the broader context of climate change, which is leading to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and their consequences. These changes affect the country’s water balance, which manifests itself in prolonged droughts that, it seems, last almost continuously, being only in different phases.

In addition to continuing monitoring activities that support dynamic water resources management, drought countermeasures must be implemented, especially in the area of agriculture – the sector most vulnerable to this phenomenon.

Such measures include building and upgrading small-scale retention, adapting crops to local soil and climate conditions, promoting agricultural techniques that improve soil structure and water holding capacity, and investing in irrigation systems aimed at optimizing resource use on farms.

To counteract the effects of drought on a national scale, it is recommended that numerous projects be implemented to stop precipitation closest to its contact with the surface, by promoting infiltration phenomena, implementing blue-green solutions and revitalizing hydrologically degraded areas.

Integrated measures are needed, including both monitoring, investment in retention and optimization of water use, and public education on water conservation and rational resource management. Only a coordinated and multidimensional approach will make it possible to mitigate the effects of drought and ensure water and food security in the long term.

Anna Michalowska – M.Sc. environmental engineering, hydrologist, author of: iseswoda.pl